It's become simple. Boise State has to lose this Saturday at San Jose State or Tulane's playoff hopes will hinge slowly on the Mountain West Championship Game, which will take place on Fox on Dec. 6 at the exact same time as the Tulane-Army AAC title matchup (if the Wave gets there). I'm not sure Boise would finish behind Tulane if it lost this week and won the Mountain West, but it would be a close call for the committee, with the Broncos having by far the worst loss and Tulane having a better victory against Army than any of Boise's. If Oregon stays No. 1, Boise's last-minute loss at Oregon might be the trump card, although Tulane I believe is the better team.
1) Boise State (9-1)
Boise struggled against Nevada, the worst team in the Mountain West, winning 28-21 while benefiting from turnovers at its 29 and 1-yard lines. Maybe San Jose State, which lost in double OT to Washington State and beat Oregon State, can pull the surprise. Ken Niumatalolo's new team has little else going for it, though.
2) Tulane (8-2)
I'm having a hard time seeing how Tulane can lose again. This team has a plethora of playmakers on both sides of the ball and Jon Sumrall's Troy team held Army to 9 and zero points the past two years. He knows how to prepare for the option.
3) Army (9-0)
Army's game against Notre Dame likely will determine where the AAC title game is played if the Black Knights and Wave go 8-0. The tiebreaker will be which team has the higher college football playoff ranking going into the final weekend of league play. I assume that would be Tulane if Army loses to Notre Dame. It definitely would be Army if it finds a way to beat the Fighting Irish.
4) UNLV (7-2)
Like Boise, UNLV's toughest remaining game is at San Jose State. The Rebs eked past Hawaii this past weekend and will be locked out of the Mountain West title game if Colorado State keeps winning against the bottom half of the league. That's good for Tulane because a UNLV with wins over Kansas, Houston and Boise (with losses to Boise and Syracuse) would have a better resume than Tulane if clearly not as good a team. Kansas in particular and Houston a little bit are becoming better wins with their recent surges.
5) UL-Lafayette (8-1)
This team keeps getting better, That's great news for Tulane, which has zero other quality wins through 10 games. The Cajuns, who crushed Arkansas State on Saturday, can clinch a spot in the Sun Belt title game by beating South Alabama this Saturday. And if Navy wins the AAC and Colorado State wins the Mountain West, the Cajuns could play their way into the college football playoff.
6) Navy (7-2)
I did not expect Navy to play as well as it did against South Florida, when it rushed for 321 yards in a 28-7 run, but quarterback Blake Horvath has come back down to Earth after a incredibly hot start to the year. Unless he regains the dual-threat form he had until the Notre Dame debacle, Tulane will win easily,
7) Western Kentucky (7-2)
8) Memphis (8-2)
9 Colorado State (6-3)
10) Jacksonville State (6-3)
None of these teams are relevant, although as I mentioned above, Tulane may need Colorado State to become relevant on Dec. 6 it it faces Boise State in the Mountain West title game. I'll throw a bone to RichRod, who needed a Hail Mary on the final play (and an OT TD after a missed extra point that followed the Hail Mary) to beat La Tech, but his team is undefeated in CUSA and plays at Western Kentucky in its regular-season finale.
1) Boise State (9-1)
Boise struggled against Nevada, the worst team in the Mountain West, winning 28-21 while benefiting from turnovers at its 29 and 1-yard lines. Maybe San Jose State, which lost in double OT to Washington State and beat Oregon State, can pull the surprise. Ken Niumatalolo's new team has little else going for it, though.
2) Tulane (8-2)
I'm having a hard time seeing how Tulane can lose again. This team has a plethora of playmakers on both sides of the ball and Jon Sumrall's Troy team held Army to 9 and zero points the past two years. He knows how to prepare for the option.
3) Army (9-0)
Army's game against Notre Dame likely will determine where the AAC title game is played if the Black Knights and Wave go 8-0. The tiebreaker will be which team has the higher college football playoff ranking going into the final weekend of league play. I assume that would be Tulane if Army loses to Notre Dame. It definitely would be Army if it finds a way to beat the Fighting Irish.
4) UNLV (7-2)
Like Boise, UNLV's toughest remaining game is at San Jose State. The Rebs eked past Hawaii this past weekend and will be locked out of the Mountain West title game if Colorado State keeps winning against the bottom half of the league. That's good for Tulane because a UNLV with wins over Kansas, Houston and Boise (with losses to Boise and Syracuse) would have a better resume than Tulane if clearly not as good a team. Kansas in particular and Houston a little bit are becoming better wins with their recent surges.
5) UL-Lafayette (8-1)
This team keeps getting better, That's great news for Tulane, which has zero other quality wins through 10 games. The Cajuns, who crushed Arkansas State on Saturday, can clinch a spot in the Sun Belt title game by beating South Alabama this Saturday. And if Navy wins the AAC and Colorado State wins the Mountain West, the Cajuns could play their way into the college football playoff.
6) Navy (7-2)
I did not expect Navy to play as well as it did against South Florida, when it rushed for 321 yards in a 28-7 run, but quarterback Blake Horvath has come back down to Earth after a incredibly hot start to the year. Unless he regains the dual-threat form he had until the Notre Dame debacle, Tulane will win easily,
7) Western Kentucky (7-2)
8) Memphis (8-2)
9 Colorado State (6-3)
10) Jacksonville State (6-3)
None of these teams are relevant, although as I mentioned above, Tulane may need Colorado State to become relevant on Dec. 6 it it faces Boise State in the Mountain West title game. I'll throw a bone to RichRod, who needed a Hail Mary on the final play (and an OT TD after a missed extra point that followed the Hail Mary) to beat La Tech, but his team is undefeated in CUSA and plays at Western Kentucky in its regular-season finale.
