If the NCAA went strictly by RPI, Tulane would be the top team left out of the field (I tweeted Tulane would be the last team in but miscalculated, and I will leave it that way because it sounds better) because 22 conference championship are below Tulane's No. 43 RPI. The last at-large team in would be Maryland.
The good news is the committee never goes strictly by the RPI. Georgia Tech and Ohio State, both ahead of Tulane in the RPI, are extreme long shots to make the field because of the Yellow Jackets' implosion at the end of the year and Ohio State's pitiful 11-17 record against the top 100 and the Big Ten already having five teams.
Also, I do think the Wave will get in based on being the No. 3 team from the third best conference in the country even though the NCAA committee swears it never looks at conferences (I don't buy that). Regardless, the Wave's performance against the top 50 and top 100 should be just good enough for it to squeak in if the committee follows its stated criteria and ignores conference affiliation.
I think USF will get in as well but does not deserve a bid. In fact, I'd take North Florida over USF for the final spot because I believe regular season champions who have proven themselves to some extent out of conference deserve to be rewarded. The other two teams similar to North Florida--SLU and Nevada--came up empty outside of their weak leagues.
My final projection of what the NCAA committee will do:
ACC (8): Louisville, FSU, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia, NC State, Notre Dame, Clemson
SEC (7): LSU, Florida, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Auburn, Ole Miss
Big Ten (5): Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan
Pac-12 (5): UCLA, USC, Arizona State, Oregon State, California
AAC (4): Houston, East Carolina, Tulane, South Florida
CUSA (3): Rice, Florida Atllantic, Florida International
Big 12 (3): TCU, Oklahoma State, Texas
Missouri Valley (3): Missouri State, Dallas Baptist, Bradley
Big South (2): Radford, Coastal Carolina
Colonial (2): Charleston, UNC Wilmington
Big West (2): Cal St. Fullerton, UCSB
One-bid (20): FAMU, Texas Southern, Columbia, Lehigh, Wright State, Canisius, Morehead State, ULL, Pepperdine, Lipscomb, St. John's, Ohio, San Diego State, Mercer, Oral Roberts, VCU, Sacred Heart, Bakersfield, Stony Brook, Houston Baptist
Final four in: Bradley, Tulane, Clemson, South Florida
Two left out: UC Irvine, North Florida (I can't make a legitimate case for any other team, although the committee certainly could throw a curveball and have someone I haven't listed). The teams I had on the bubble were Ohio State, Michigan State, Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, Alabama, Nevada, Southeastern Louisiana, UConn and Southern Miss.
One final note: Tulane went 7-11 against my projected field, and the committee frequently has mentioned team's records against the field when explaining their inclusion. That won't help or hurt the Wave this time, but if you take USF out, the record is 5-10. USF's record against the field is 10-14, but only because the Bulls swept RPI No. 232 FAMU three games.
I have no projection for where Tulane would go because I don' t think there's a rhyme or reason to it. The options appear to be Baton Rouge, College Station, Tallahassee and Gainesville. Tulane last went to Baton Rouge in 2003, going to Oxford in 2004, hosting in 2005, Oxford again in 2006 and Tallahassee in 2008. The last time Tulane played a regional in Texas was 1983, when the most talented team in the Joe Brockhoff era (not the best team, which was 1986, but the most talented) went to Austin and played Mississippi State (Will Clark, Rafael Palmeiro, Jeff Brantley) tough and eventual national champion Texas tough in between needing extra innings to get by Grambling for its lone win.
The good news is the committee never goes strictly by the RPI. Georgia Tech and Ohio State, both ahead of Tulane in the RPI, are extreme long shots to make the field because of the Yellow Jackets' implosion at the end of the year and Ohio State's pitiful 11-17 record against the top 100 and the Big Ten already having five teams.
Also, I do think the Wave will get in based on being the No. 3 team from the third best conference in the country even though the NCAA committee swears it never looks at conferences (I don't buy that). Regardless, the Wave's performance against the top 50 and top 100 should be just good enough for it to squeak in if the committee follows its stated criteria and ignores conference affiliation.
I think USF will get in as well but does not deserve a bid. In fact, I'd take North Florida over USF for the final spot because I believe regular season champions who have proven themselves to some extent out of conference deserve to be rewarded. The other two teams similar to North Florida--SLU and Nevada--came up empty outside of their weak leagues.
My final projection of what the NCAA committee will do:
ACC (8): Louisville, FSU, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia, NC State, Notre Dame, Clemson
SEC (7): LSU, Florida, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Auburn, Ole Miss
Big Ten (5): Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan
Pac-12 (5): UCLA, USC, Arizona State, Oregon State, California
AAC (4): Houston, East Carolina, Tulane, South Florida
CUSA (3): Rice, Florida Atllantic, Florida International
Big 12 (3): TCU, Oklahoma State, Texas
Missouri Valley (3): Missouri State, Dallas Baptist, Bradley
Big South (2): Radford, Coastal Carolina
Colonial (2): Charleston, UNC Wilmington
Big West (2): Cal St. Fullerton, UCSB
One-bid (20): FAMU, Texas Southern, Columbia, Lehigh, Wright State, Canisius, Morehead State, ULL, Pepperdine, Lipscomb, St. John's, Ohio, San Diego State, Mercer, Oral Roberts, VCU, Sacred Heart, Bakersfield, Stony Brook, Houston Baptist
Final four in: Bradley, Tulane, Clemson, South Florida
Two left out: UC Irvine, North Florida (I can't make a legitimate case for any other team, although the committee certainly could throw a curveball and have someone I haven't listed). The teams I had on the bubble were Ohio State, Michigan State, Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, Alabama, Nevada, Southeastern Louisiana, UConn and Southern Miss.
One final note: Tulane went 7-11 against my projected field, and the committee frequently has mentioned team's records against the field when explaining their inclusion. That won't help or hurt the Wave this time, but if you take USF out, the record is 5-10. USF's record against the field is 10-14, but only because the Bulls swept RPI No. 232 FAMU three games.
I have no projection for where Tulane would go because I don' t think there's a rhyme or reason to it. The options appear to be Baton Rouge, College Station, Tallahassee and Gainesville. Tulane last went to Baton Rouge in 2003, going to Oxford in 2004, hosting in 2005, Oxford again in 2006 and Tallahassee in 2008. The last time Tulane played a regional in Texas was 1983, when the most talented team in the Joe Brockhoff era (not the best team, which was 1986, but the most talented) went to Austin and played Mississippi State (Will Clark, Rafael Palmeiro, Jeff Brantley) tough and eventual national champion Texas tough in between needing extra innings to get by Grambling for its lone win.
Last edited: