Obviously, losing two out of three to Houston this weekend hurt our post season chances. And, as the season goes on, we must start winning "in conference" series as well as perform well OOC if we're to have ANY chance of making the regionals. But, we're probably not as far off as many people think.
Currently, we're 22-14 (3-6) and have an RPI of 51. Had we won one more conference game, we'd be 23-13 (4-5) and have an RPI of 42. Two more wins would have us at 24-12 (5-4), tied for second in the AAC, and have an RPI of 35. Had we gone 2-1 instead of 1-2 in our three conference weekends, we'd be 25-11 (6-3), in sole possession of second place in the conference, and with an RPI of 28. Of course, such results did not happen and it's all "spilt milk" anyhow.
To make the tourney as an "at large," we probably have to have at least a .500 record in conference. The conference is currently in 5th place from an RPI standpoint in a virtual "dead heat" with the Big 12 and PAC 10 for third through fifth place. We're all a long way from both 2nd and 6th place so we'll probably stay in that range. Since the AAC has a better OOC record than the Big 12, I think we'll eventually pass them and end up in 4th place. I don't think CUSA was ever better than 5th. We're in a surprisingly good baseball conference.
If we go 2-1 in each of our remaining five conference series and finish up 2-1 in our OOC games against USM, SELA, and LSU, we'd end up 34-20 (13-11), have an SOS in the 50's and an RPI in the 30's. I think that would get us "in." Much less would be a problem.
Can it be done? Yes, of course. But, we can't hit .204 like we did against Houston this weekend. We can't strike out ten times in 7 innings against a guy who has never fanned more than five in a game. And, though pitching is certainly not our primary problem, we need all of our pitchers to "get it together." Yandel had a 0.50 ERA last year in 13 appearances and, earlier this year, looked like a guy destined to leave after this season for the pros. We need THAT guy back. Gibault needs to work out of his problems. And Massey, Merrill, Gibbs, and Duester need to be at their best. Good performances from Rankin, Gross, and Steel would also be helpful.
According to Boyd's World's calculations, we need to win 11 more games to get to an RPI of 48 or better, 13 to get to an RPI of 32 and 17 to reach the top 16. Heck, that would possibly mean hosting in the first round. Why not dream?
But, because of our problems at the plate, which won't be solved until we bring in better hitters, I think our regional chances this year are slim. If we go 6-2 over the next two weeks, they'll be a lot brighter. If we go 4-4 or worse, they'll be essentially limited to winning the conference tournament.
Roll Wave!!!
Currently, we're 22-14 (3-6) and have an RPI of 51. Had we won one more conference game, we'd be 23-13 (4-5) and have an RPI of 42. Two more wins would have us at 24-12 (5-4), tied for second in the AAC, and have an RPI of 35. Had we gone 2-1 instead of 1-2 in our three conference weekends, we'd be 25-11 (6-3), in sole possession of second place in the conference, and with an RPI of 28. Of course, such results did not happen and it's all "spilt milk" anyhow.
To make the tourney as an "at large," we probably have to have at least a .500 record in conference. The conference is currently in 5th place from an RPI standpoint in a virtual "dead heat" with the Big 12 and PAC 10 for third through fifth place. We're all a long way from both 2nd and 6th place so we'll probably stay in that range. Since the AAC has a better OOC record than the Big 12, I think we'll eventually pass them and end up in 4th place. I don't think CUSA was ever better than 5th. We're in a surprisingly good baseball conference.
If we go 2-1 in each of our remaining five conference series and finish up 2-1 in our OOC games against USM, SELA, and LSU, we'd end up 34-20 (13-11), have an SOS in the 50's and an RPI in the 30's. I think that would get us "in." Much less would be a problem.
Can it be done? Yes, of course. But, we can't hit .204 like we did against Houston this weekend. We can't strike out ten times in 7 innings against a guy who has never fanned more than five in a game. And, though pitching is certainly not our primary problem, we need all of our pitchers to "get it together." Yandel had a 0.50 ERA last year in 13 appearances and, earlier this year, looked like a guy destined to leave after this season for the pros. We need THAT guy back. Gibault needs to work out of his problems. And Massey, Merrill, Gibbs, and Duester need to be at their best. Good performances from Rankin, Gross, and Steel would also be helpful.
According to Boyd's World's calculations, we need to win 11 more games to get to an RPI of 48 or better, 13 to get to an RPI of 32 and 17 to reach the top 16. Heck, that would possibly mean hosting in the first round. Why not dream?
But, because of our problems at the plate, which won't be solved until we bring in better hitters, I think our regional chances this year are slim. If we go 6-2 over the next two weeks, they'll be a lot brighter. If we go 4-4 or worse, they'll be essentially limited to winning the conference tournament.
Roll Wave!!!