Another year is in the books and Tulane has suffered back-to-back losing seasons for the first time in over 50 years. The pitching coach is gone (good riddance) and, for good or ill, Coach Jewett will apparently be staying for at least one more year. It should be a “put up or be gone” season.
Most of us think making a regional is the least we should expect from a Tulane baseball team. To do so, we need to win our conference tournament or be considered one of the best 45 or so teams in the country since roughly 20 teams who would never make the tournament do so as conference champions.
This year, pitching, the most important factor in baseball to my way of thinking, may have been better than last year but still abysmal. Yet neither our hitting, which improved dramatically over the year, nor fielding was, in my opinion, close to the top 45 in the country. All require improvement if we really expect to compete for conference championships or NCAA at large berths.
So, what about next year? What are our potential strengths and weaknesses? Witherspoon is almost a sure departure. That’s a big loss. He was undoubtedly our most effective hitter with a good eye and power. I thought his base running left something to be desired and while he wasn’t a good centerfielder, he was still probably our best outfielder.
I personally see question marks in the field at every position, starting with the outfield.
Outfield: We have five returning outfielders, each of whom showed potential at various times but none of them were particularly good defensively nor hit consistently. Heinrich (.161), Bedgood (.242), Glancy (.227), Sepcich (.111), and Kobi Owen (.214) were a combined 70 for 347 (.202) with 8 HR’s and 116 strikeouts. That clearly won’t cut it. I think Owen, Glancy, and Bedgood each have the chance for major improvement but would we consider moving someone else to the outfield? Ty Johnson, who hit .282 with 0 HR’s in a year marred by injuries, would be an obvious possibility since he played there this season. But, if healthy, would he take more turns at catcher? What about Artigues? He’s not a very good 2nd baseman and if an incoming freshman could play there, would he move to the outfield? And, though I consider it a long shot, what about Mathews or Jensen? Although Jensen came here as a 3rd baseman, and, I thought played well at 1st, we need both he and Mathews in the lineup. Mathews could play 1st and open up the DH position for an incoming player. Then, of course, incoming freshmen could hold the key.
Shortstop: I thought Gozzo played pretty well defensively this year but he doesn’t have the range or arm I’d like to see. Regardless, his defense isn’t good enough to make up for a .225 batting average. We need improvement in this area. As an aside, with no inside knowledge, it wouldn’t shock me if he transferred to Connecticut to redshirt and play his final two years with his brother. Would Coach Jewett consider moving Hoese back to shortstop if, say, Jensen could play 3rd? Bedgood also came here as a 3rd baseman.
3rd Base: I was happy with Hoese’s progress this year. I think as he fills out and gets stronger he will become even more of a HR threat (.5 this year along with a .291 batting average). If he doesn’t move to shortstop, I think we’re pretty solid at 3rd.
2nd Base: Artigues is an aggressive, can-do kind of player that every coach and fan loves and his offense has been sufficient to make up for his defensive failings. Yet, he strikes out too much and is overly aggressive at the plate, swinging at pitches early in the count that he should take. I love hitting the first good pitch because you may not see another, but swinging at the first pitch when it is unhittable ( a ball or a “pitcher’s pitch”) reduces chances of success. He needs to improve defensively as well as become a little more patient at bat. Still another year hitting like he did this year would be welcome. I expect he’ll be in the lineup somewhere but if we get someone who can hit and play 2nd, it might be in the outfield.
1st Base: We’re set at 1st base with Jensen (.306 and 9 HR’s) and Mathews (.347 and 4 Hr’s, in limited duty). Both will be in the lineup probably at 1st and DH but, as mentioned before, I wouldn’t be shocked if one of them found another position to open up the DH spot for someone else (as yet to be identified)
Catcher: Owen (.203 and 2 HR’s) was a disappointment at the plate this year and his fielding was even worse. He had too many passed balls and should have been able to block more of our many wild pitches. I tend to blame the pitcher for stolen bases, but he didn’t do much of a job there either. Nieman went 4 for 4 over a three week stretch of “spot duty” in mid-season but was 1 for 18 the rest of the year. Can either of them improve enough to make catcher a strength? If healthy, Ty Johnson could help a great deal but on researching the situation, neither he nor Owen played more than half their games in JC or summer ball. We do have two incoming freshmen plus Jake Revere who will be a redshirt freshmen available to compete.
Pitching: Pitching this season was bad in every respect. As a group, they had a .867 fielding percentage replete with misplayed bunts, throws to the wrong base, and wild throws to first base on balls fielded on the mound or attempted pickoffs. Too many runners stole bases against our pitchers without even a throw attempted. That’s bad. Add to that our abysmal 5.42 ERA, opponents’ .272 batting average, and horrific 6.4 free passes (walks and hit batters) per 9 innings and the verdict is clear—Guilty!
So what do we need? Ideally a team would have four starters who could consistently go 6 innings a game; that’s 84 innings in a season. This year, Gillies threw 80.1 innings, the most on our staff.
Then you would like at least three relievers who could go 1 to 2 innings twice a week; that's 42 innings in a season. That would give you about 460 innings or roughly 90% of the year’s total. This year, our top seven pitchers totaled a little over 75% of our innings with a 4.90 ERA, leaving 25% to guys whose combined ERA was 7.52. A good team needs to get more innings and more success from their “top 7.”
So, who are our top seven next year? An early guess would be Gillies, Roper, Johnson, and Bates as starters since that’s how they ended the season. Their combined ERA was 4.34, not great, but an indicator of why they were the starters. If they can improve and a newcomer could break into the starting four, we might have four starters plus a 5th starter/reliever as a core group.
To me Pellerin has the best “stuff” on the staff; his movement on the ball is outstanding. He’s the only one with more strikeouts than innings and opponents only hit .234 against him (3rd best). But he walked or hit 47 batters in 44 innings—beyond atrocious. If he can get his “stuff” under control, he could be the closer we really need. McAffer, too, has “good stuff” but 26 walks and 12 wild pitches in 28 innings pretty much defines his problem. Worse, when he gets behind he tend to let up and “groove” the ball resulting in a .301 batting average against him. If he and Pellerin could cut the walks to about 4 per 9 innings (not great but less than half the current rate), they would be solid “bull pen” guys.
The rest of the guys on the staff don’t appear to “have it” though I hold out hope for Massey and Solesky, if either or both return next year. Yet, opponents batted .350 against Massey and .366 against Solesky and they both continued to offer far too many free passes (46 in 57.1 innings between them).
Next year will require a lot of improvement primarily in the pitching staff and some “break out” performances in the batter’s box. We also need some of the newcomers, particularly pitchers, to carry some of next year’s load. Until then…
Roll Wave!!
Most of us think making a regional is the least we should expect from a Tulane baseball team. To do so, we need to win our conference tournament or be considered one of the best 45 or so teams in the country since roughly 20 teams who would never make the tournament do so as conference champions.
This year, pitching, the most important factor in baseball to my way of thinking, may have been better than last year but still abysmal. Yet neither our hitting, which improved dramatically over the year, nor fielding was, in my opinion, close to the top 45 in the country. All require improvement if we really expect to compete for conference championships or NCAA at large berths.
So, what about next year? What are our potential strengths and weaknesses? Witherspoon is almost a sure departure. That’s a big loss. He was undoubtedly our most effective hitter with a good eye and power. I thought his base running left something to be desired and while he wasn’t a good centerfielder, he was still probably our best outfielder.
I personally see question marks in the field at every position, starting with the outfield.
Outfield: We have five returning outfielders, each of whom showed potential at various times but none of them were particularly good defensively nor hit consistently. Heinrich (.161), Bedgood (.242), Glancy (.227), Sepcich (.111), and Kobi Owen (.214) were a combined 70 for 347 (.202) with 8 HR’s and 116 strikeouts. That clearly won’t cut it. I think Owen, Glancy, and Bedgood each have the chance for major improvement but would we consider moving someone else to the outfield? Ty Johnson, who hit .282 with 0 HR’s in a year marred by injuries, would be an obvious possibility since he played there this season. But, if healthy, would he take more turns at catcher? What about Artigues? He’s not a very good 2nd baseman and if an incoming freshman could play there, would he move to the outfield? And, though I consider it a long shot, what about Mathews or Jensen? Although Jensen came here as a 3rd baseman, and, I thought played well at 1st, we need both he and Mathews in the lineup. Mathews could play 1st and open up the DH position for an incoming player. Then, of course, incoming freshmen could hold the key.
Shortstop: I thought Gozzo played pretty well defensively this year but he doesn’t have the range or arm I’d like to see. Regardless, his defense isn’t good enough to make up for a .225 batting average. We need improvement in this area. As an aside, with no inside knowledge, it wouldn’t shock me if he transferred to Connecticut to redshirt and play his final two years with his brother. Would Coach Jewett consider moving Hoese back to shortstop if, say, Jensen could play 3rd? Bedgood also came here as a 3rd baseman.
3rd Base: I was happy with Hoese’s progress this year. I think as he fills out and gets stronger he will become even more of a HR threat (.5 this year along with a .291 batting average). If he doesn’t move to shortstop, I think we’re pretty solid at 3rd.
2nd Base: Artigues is an aggressive, can-do kind of player that every coach and fan loves and his offense has been sufficient to make up for his defensive failings. Yet, he strikes out too much and is overly aggressive at the plate, swinging at pitches early in the count that he should take. I love hitting the first good pitch because you may not see another, but swinging at the first pitch when it is unhittable ( a ball or a “pitcher’s pitch”) reduces chances of success. He needs to improve defensively as well as become a little more patient at bat. Still another year hitting like he did this year would be welcome. I expect he’ll be in the lineup somewhere but if we get someone who can hit and play 2nd, it might be in the outfield.
1st Base: We’re set at 1st base with Jensen (.306 and 9 HR’s) and Mathews (.347 and 4 Hr’s, in limited duty). Both will be in the lineup probably at 1st and DH but, as mentioned before, I wouldn’t be shocked if one of them found another position to open up the DH spot for someone else (as yet to be identified)
Catcher: Owen (.203 and 2 HR’s) was a disappointment at the plate this year and his fielding was even worse. He had too many passed balls and should have been able to block more of our many wild pitches. I tend to blame the pitcher for stolen bases, but he didn’t do much of a job there either. Nieman went 4 for 4 over a three week stretch of “spot duty” in mid-season but was 1 for 18 the rest of the year. Can either of them improve enough to make catcher a strength? If healthy, Ty Johnson could help a great deal but on researching the situation, neither he nor Owen played more than half their games in JC or summer ball. We do have two incoming freshmen plus Jake Revere who will be a redshirt freshmen available to compete.
Pitching: Pitching this season was bad in every respect. As a group, they had a .867 fielding percentage replete with misplayed bunts, throws to the wrong base, and wild throws to first base on balls fielded on the mound or attempted pickoffs. Too many runners stole bases against our pitchers without even a throw attempted. That’s bad. Add to that our abysmal 5.42 ERA, opponents’ .272 batting average, and horrific 6.4 free passes (walks and hit batters) per 9 innings and the verdict is clear—Guilty!
So what do we need? Ideally a team would have four starters who could consistently go 6 innings a game; that’s 84 innings in a season. This year, Gillies threw 80.1 innings, the most on our staff.
Then you would like at least three relievers who could go 1 to 2 innings twice a week; that's 42 innings in a season. That would give you about 460 innings or roughly 90% of the year’s total. This year, our top seven pitchers totaled a little over 75% of our innings with a 4.90 ERA, leaving 25% to guys whose combined ERA was 7.52. A good team needs to get more innings and more success from their “top 7.”
So, who are our top seven next year? An early guess would be Gillies, Roper, Johnson, and Bates as starters since that’s how they ended the season. Their combined ERA was 4.34, not great, but an indicator of why they were the starters. If they can improve and a newcomer could break into the starting four, we might have four starters plus a 5th starter/reliever as a core group.
To me Pellerin has the best “stuff” on the staff; his movement on the ball is outstanding. He’s the only one with more strikeouts than innings and opponents only hit .234 against him (3rd best). But he walked or hit 47 batters in 44 innings—beyond atrocious. If he can get his “stuff” under control, he could be the closer we really need. McAffer, too, has “good stuff” but 26 walks and 12 wild pitches in 28 innings pretty much defines his problem. Worse, when he gets behind he tend to let up and “groove” the ball resulting in a .301 batting average against him. If he and Pellerin could cut the walks to about 4 per 9 innings (not great but less than half the current rate), they would be solid “bull pen” guys.
The rest of the guys on the staff don’t appear to “have it” though I hold out hope for Massey and Solesky, if either or both return next year. Yet, opponents batted .350 against Massey and .366 against Solesky and they both continued to offer far too many free passes (46 in 57.1 innings between them).
Next year will require a lot of improvement primarily in the pitching staff and some “break out” performances in the batter’s box. We also need some of the newcomers, particularly pitchers, to carry some of next year’s load. Until then…
Roll Wave!!
