Hitting: It’s hard to complain about our hitting so far. With a .341 batting average and 13 HR’s in 7 games, we’re on a pace to break the all-time Tulane average of .340 (1998) and hit 104 HR’s in the regular season. The only times that was topped was in 1999 (128) in 65 games and 1998 (105) in 63 games, both during the "Gorilla Ball" era. I don’t think we’ll actually approach any of those records but it suggests an incredible start. With eight batters with at least 16 at bats hitting .300 or over and only Gozzo (.194) hitting less than that, the entire lineup save one man is contributing at the plate. And except for the opening day starter for George Washington (who I thought was the best pitcher we’ve faced so far), we’ve been very successful against almost everyone else. Other than that first game, we’re hitting .342 against starting pitching (.440 against Ole Miss starters) and .356 against relievers (though only .300 against Ole Miss). Essentially we’re hitting virtually anyone they throw out there. And we’re even hitting .237 with two strikes. The best we’ve done in the previous four years was .155 in 2015. Yet, we’re still killing the ball on the first strike (.431) and with one strike (.430). We’re being aggressive early and guarding the plate much better with 2 strikes. We’re only striking out 40% of the time once we get to two strikes while we struck out roughly 50% of the time with that count in each of the past four years since I’ve been keeping that stat.
Fielding: Our .976 fielding average is fine but we’ve made a number of mental mistakes in the field and our pitchers, in particular, have made a number of very damaging errors. Kobi Owen has shored up our centerfield pretty well but even he misplayed a single into a triple a few games back. Mathews is not a very good outfield in left field and looks unsure under even the easiest fly balls. He, too, misplayed a single into a triple. I think Ty Johnson is a solid, though not great, outfielder who would be better in left field. A lot depends on the status of his thumb injury, which I blame for his drop against Ole Miss. Haskins looks good in the outfield and from previous years I think Heinrichs is also solid, though he may not get many opportunities. I haven’t seen enough of either Sepcich or Glancy to make even a too-early guess. Jensen is solid at first and I think Artigues has improved significantly over what I thought wasn’t a very good season last year in the field. Gozzo also appears to be improved but is still not a great shortstop, though serviceable. Hoese has made a couple of errors but is fine at third base. Our catchers haven’t been very good at catching base stealers (they’re 7 for 8), but have only allowed one passed ball and 5 wild pitches, which, of course, are counted against the pitcher but can be reduced by the catcher. If we can avoid the costly errors from our pitchers, we should be good.
Base Running: I like aggressive base running. But, we’ve been picked off three times, overrun a couple of bases and made other serious base running errors that could have caused us some runs. We’ve been 6 for 7 on attempted steals but don’t have great team speed. It’s what it is.
Pitching: Most Tulane fans expect the addition of Danial Latham to our staff will significantly improve our pitching. I still think so. But so far, our 4.97 ERA is only marginally better than last year’s 5.42. Still, last year, opponents hit .272 against us, while this year they’re hitting .218. Our “fre passes” (BBs&HBPs) per 9 innings are down from 6.44 to 5.44 and our strikeouts are up from 6.90 to 8.05. Of course it’s early and at least two factors could be in play here. While Ole Miss may well be the best hitting team we’ll see all year, neither George Washington nor Lamar have good hitting teams, possibly two of the worst we’ll see this season, but we don’t know. Also, as the weather gets warmer, teams tend to hit better. So, while that can be encouraging to our hitters, it probably doesn’t bode well for pitching staffs.
As to specifics, Roper looked good, though somewhat wild, against a weak hitting George Washington, but didn’t fare as well against Ole Miss. Whether he’s a shutdown Friday night starter is still in doubt, at least to me. Gillies has had two not very impressive outings and we need him to get back to last year’s success. And while it’s good to see Solesky back out there, he’s getting his pitches up too high. After an inning or so it seems to me that he’s not following through enough. Bates obviously had a great game against Lamar and his performance against Nichols, a much better team in my view, will be instructive. Raj, of course, has been a surprise, though his lack of control (6 walks in 8.2 innings) has to be a concern. After their successes this past summer I expected Campbell and Cellucci to be much better than they’ve shown so far. Cellucci, in particular, has had a rough go. Opponents are hitting .294 against him and he’s allowed four “free passes” in 5.1 innings. That the two of them (our only two lefthanders to pitch thus far) have appeared 8 times in our seven games suggests that Ross Massey is either injured or not close to what we’d hoped for this season. I thought Trent Johnson had good stuff in both his appearances and it’s too bad his fielding destroyed his second outing. Price, Green, and Whelan have a combined ERA of 11.74 and have walked or hit 7 batters in 7.2 innings while being batted around at a .333 clip. And that leaves Pellerin. He’s been terrible in his two appearances during “crunch” time and looked good when he pitched during “garbage” time. That’s not a good resume for a “closer.” He needs to come around.
While hitting has bailed out our pitching for the most part, we need at least four starters, three middle relievers, and a closer to compete at the level most of us desire. I think we’ve got the arms, but technique and mental focus has to come into play.
Future Opponents: At this point, RPI doesn’t mean much, mostly because the win-loss record of opponents, which counts 50%, provides much more importance to individual games than it will later in the season. That said, once we get into conference play, the win-loss record of our opponents (mostly conference mates) will greatly affect our RPI. For that reason, the fact that the AAC is currently in 9th place form an RPI standpoint isn’t that concerning. More concerning is the conference is in 13th place from a win-loss standpoint. From an RPI standpoint it’s better to play opponents with a .600 winning record than a .500. Right now the conference stands at .5161.
Our remaining out of conference opponents have a current record of 79-81, not far from average, but still on the negative side. That may mean the schedule plays into our hands, but it doesn’t bode well for the win-loss component of our future RPIs. A long way to go of course.
General: Our team looks to be all pulling for each other and the coaches seem to have the confidence of the players. That appears to be a major improvement over what we saw two years ago in particular. Hitting will probably cool off somewhat so pitching needs to improve. Although some would like to see a return to “gorilla ball,” I doubt we have many more 16-6, 22-10, and 13-12 games this year. Jewett seems to be more in control and possibly a little less rigid; all good. While it may be a step too far, our goal should be to host a regional this season. Not “sweating out” a bid going into the conference tournament should be a fall-back position. A month from now, with 25 games gone and the conference season starting, we’ll have a much better handle on where we stand vis-à-vis such goals. Hoping for the best…
Roll Wave!!!
Fielding: Our .976 fielding average is fine but we’ve made a number of mental mistakes in the field and our pitchers, in particular, have made a number of very damaging errors. Kobi Owen has shored up our centerfield pretty well but even he misplayed a single into a triple a few games back. Mathews is not a very good outfield in left field and looks unsure under even the easiest fly balls. He, too, misplayed a single into a triple. I think Ty Johnson is a solid, though not great, outfielder who would be better in left field. A lot depends on the status of his thumb injury, which I blame for his drop against Ole Miss. Haskins looks good in the outfield and from previous years I think Heinrichs is also solid, though he may not get many opportunities. I haven’t seen enough of either Sepcich or Glancy to make even a too-early guess. Jensen is solid at first and I think Artigues has improved significantly over what I thought wasn’t a very good season last year in the field. Gozzo also appears to be improved but is still not a great shortstop, though serviceable. Hoese has made a couple of errors but is fine at third base. Our catchers haven’t been very good at catching base stealers (they’re 7 for 8), but have only allowed one passed ball and 5 wild pitches, which, of course, are counted against the pitcher but can be reduced by the catcher. If we can avoid the costly errors from our pitchers, we should be good.
Base Running: I like aggressive base running. But, we’ve been picked off three times, overrun a couple of bases and made other serious base running errors that could have caused us some runs. We’ve been 6 for 7 on attempted steals but don’t have great team speed. It’s what it is.
Pitching: Most Tulane fans expect the addition of Danial Latham to our staff will significantly improve our pitching. I still think so. But so far, our 4.97 ERA is only marginally better than last year’s 5.42. Still, last year, opponents hit .272 against us, while this year they’re hitting .218. Our “fre passes” (BBs&HBPs) per 9 innings are down from 6.44 to 5.44 and our strikeouts are up from 6.90 to 8.05. Of course it’s early and at least two factors could be in play here. While Ole Miss may well be the best hitting team we’ll see all year, neither George Washington nor Lamar have good hitting teams, possibly two of the worst we’ll see this season, but we don’t know. Also, as the weather gets warmer, teams tend to hit better. So, while that can be encouraging to our hitters, it probably doesn’t bode well for pitching staffs.
As to specifics, Roper looked good, though somewhat wild, against a weak hitting George Washington, but didn’t fare as well against Ole Miss. Whether he’s a shutdown Friday night starter is still in doubt, at least to me. Gillies has had two not very impressive outings and we need him to get back to last year’s success. And while it’s good to see Solesky back out there, he’s getting his pitches up too high. After an inning or so it seems to me that he’s not following through enough. Bates obviously had a great game against Lamar and his performance against Nichols, a much better team in my view, will be instructive. Raj, of course, has been a surprise, though his lack of control (6 walks in 8.2 innings) has to be a concern. After their successes this past summer I expected Campbell and Cellucci to be much better than they’ve shown so far. Cellucci, in particular, has had a rough go. Opponents are hitting .294 against him and he’s allowed four “free passes” in 5.1 innings. That the two of them (our only two lefthanders to pitch thus far) have appeared 8 times in our seven games suggests that Ross Massey is either injured or not close to what we’d hoped for this season. I thought Trent Johnson had good stuff in both his appearances and it’s too bad his fielding destroyed his second outing. Price, Green, and Whelan have a combined ERA of 11.74 and have walked or hit 7 batters in 7.2 innings while being batted around at a .333 clip. And that leaves Pellerin. He’s been terrible in his two appearances during “crunch” time and looked good when he pitched during “garbage” time. That’s not a good resume for a “closer.” He needs to come around.
While hitting has bailed out our pitching for the most part, we need at least four starters, three middle relievers, and a closer to compete at the level most of us desire. I think we’ve got the arms, but technique and mental focus has to come into play.
Future Opponents: At this point, RPI doesn’t mean much, mostly because the win-loss record of opponents, which counts 50%, provides much more importance to individual games than it will later in the season. That said, once we get into conference play, the win-loss record of our opponents (mostly conference mates) will greatly affect our RPI. For that reason, the fact that the AAC is currently in 9th place form an RPI standpoint isn’t that concerning. More concerning is the conference is in 13th place from a win-loss standpoint. From an RPI standpoint it’s better to play opponents with a .600 winning record than a .500. Right now the conference stands at .5161.
Our remaining out of conference opponents have a current record of 79-81, not far from average, but still on the negative side. That may mean the schedule plays into our hands, but it doesn’t bode well for the win-loss component of our future RPIs. A long way to go of course.
General: Our team looks to be all pulling for each other and the coaches seem to have the confidence of the players. That appears to be a major improvement over what we saw two years ago in particular. Hitting will probably cool off somewhat so pitching needs to improve. Although some would like to see a return to “gorilla ball,” I doubt we have many more 16-6, 22-10, and 13-12 games this year. Jewett seems to be more in control and possibly a little less rigid; all good. While it may be a step too far, our goal should be to host a regional this season. Not “sweating out” a bid going into the conference tournament should be a fall-back position. A month from now, with 25 games gone and the conference season starting, we’ll have a much better handle on where we stand vis-à-vis such goals. Hoping for the best…
Roll Wave!!!
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