It looked like East Carolina was going to lose its opener for the second consecutive year until Rice imploded defensively in the bottom of the eighth inning today, blowing a 4-0 lead when its right fielder lost a ball in the sun that should have been an easy catch on the warning track and had it bounce off his glove (it was absurdly ruled a triple). Then, after ECU cut the deficit to 4-2, the shortstop could not pick up a tailor-made, inning-ending double play ball with the bases loaded, opening up the floodgates. By the time the inning was over, ECU had 12 runs, with the right fielder dropping another ball he lost in the sun along the way. I'm being dead serious when I say I'm not sure any program in any sport has fallen this far from perennial national championship contender to total garbage like Rice has in the past 10 years.
As for Tulane, I feel like it is one of three teams with a legit shot to win the tournament along with ECU and Wichita State from the other half of the bracket. I believe the Wave ended up in the easier half, but that comes with a huge caveat--tonight's game will be tough. Not only is Tulane facing a pitcher (C.J. Williams) who threw a complete-game, five-hit shutout against it last month, but FAU also has a reliever who had better stuff than any pitcher the Wave faced this season in my opinion. Danny Trehey ended the regular season with a 1.91 ERA and was well on his way to clinching the series against Tulane when he was lifted after a walk to Brady Marget with two outs in the eighth inning (he had pitched 3 innings, allowing one hit with five Ks to that point). He was one pitch away from matching his season high, but Uhlman and I agreed at the time it was a gift for the Wave, which scored 7 in the ninth to rally to win.
Good teams tend t find a way to overcome tough matchups, so we will find out what Tulane has in it tonight. Williams has struggled in his last two outings, but he had a solid year and is FAU's only member of the All-Conference team (second team). I agree with the decision to throw Chandler Welch--before knowing what team the Wave would face, Uhlman said his initial inclination was to throw Luc Fladda), but Welch needs to be on. He's had a pretty good year and will get drafted, so he needs to bring it in what might be his final college start.
If Tulane wins tonight, it would face either UTSA or Charlotte on Thursday. Although UTSA hammered the Wave at Turchin Stadium, the Roadrunners' bats have cooled down considerable since then. They had only four hits in a win against FAU on Friday and four runs in a loss on Saturday and ended the year 10-8 in their last 18 conference games compared to Tulane's 12-6. I would expect the Wave to throw Fladda in that Thursday game (he struck out 8 in 4.1 innings while giving up 6 hits and three runs in the first meeting, which was better than the other starters fared).
The key for Tulane tonight is avoiding another slow start at the plate (Williams faced one over the minimum in the first three innings of the first meeting, which has been a recurring them even in some of the games Tulane has won). The lineup is far deeper than FAU's, and if the Wave can get to Williams early, this one could be easy. That's a big if, though.
Winning tournaments is hard. Even in the glory days of the Rick Jones era, Tulane won the conference tourney twice in a row only once (1998 and 1999), and the '98 tournament was a Turchin Stadium. Tulane also rarely bows out in two straight, doing it in 2000, 2004 (getting outscored 26-8 before going to Oxford and winning a regional) and 2017 since the beginning of Jones' tenure. Although the pitching depth is considerably better this year than last, the Wave cannot afford to lose tonight and expect to win four in a row to reach the championship game like ECU did. It is essential to win the first two games, something Tulane did last year for the first time since the year of the second CWS appearance in 2005.
Will Teo Banks, who has been unconscious in the last two AAC tournaments (19 of 39 with five home runs and 20 RBIs in nine career games), pick up where he left off a year ago? Will Connor Rasmussen continue to be the rock star he has been all year, and from his relatively new leadoff spot? Will enough of the guys in the rest of the order (there are no holes in it) get hot? We shall see.
I'm not predicting Tulane to win it, but it's certainly a realistic possibility. I have the Wave losing to either Wichita State or East Carolina (whoever wins their winners' bracket game on Thursday) in the championship game. I'm a little concerned about the way Henry Shuffler and Jacob Moore have pitched in the last two weeks, and Tulane's starters rarely go deep into a game. One or both could end costing the Wave, which, if it wins tonight, will need big performances from Billy Price and Michael Lombardi to go all the way.
As for Tulane, I feel like it is one of three teams with a legit shot to win the tournament along with ECU and Wichita State from the other half of the bracket. I believe the Wave ended up in the easier half, but that comes with a huge caveat--tonight's game will be tough. Not only is Tulane facing a pitcher (C.J. Williams) who threw a complete-game, five-hit shutout against it last month, but FAU also has a reliever who had better stuff than any pitcher the Wave faced this season in my opinion. Danny Trehey ended the regular season with a 1.91 ERA and was well on his way to clinching the series against Tulane when he was lifted after a walk to Brady Marget with two outs in the eighth inning (he had pitched 3 innings, allowing one hit with five Ks to that point). He was one pitch away from matching his season high, but Uhlman and I agreed at the time it was a gift for the Wave, which scored 7 in the ninth to rally to win.
Good teams tend t find a way to overcome tough matchups, so we will find out what Tulane has in it tonight. Williams has struggled in his last two outings, but he had a solid year and is FAU's only member of the All-Conference team (second team). I agree with the decision to throw Chandler Welch--before knowing what team the Wave would face, Uhlman said his initial inclination was to throw Luc Fladda), but Welch needs to be on. He's had a pretty good year and will get drafted, so he needs to bring it in what might be his final college start.
If Tulane wins tonight, it would face either UTSA or Charlotte on Thursday. Although UTSA hammered the Wave at Turchin Stadium, the Roadrunners' bats have cooled down considerable since then. They had only four hits in a win against FAU on Friday and four runs in a loss on Saturday and ended the year 10-8 in their last 18 conference games compared to Tulane's 12-6. I would expect the Wave to throw Fladda in that Thursday game (he struck out 8 in 4.1 innings while giving up 6 hits and three runs in the first meeting, which was better than the other starters fared).
The key for Tulane tonight is avoiding another slow start at the plate (Williams faced one over the minimum in the first three innings of the first meeting, which has been a recurring them even in some of the games Tulane has won). The lineup is far deeper than FAU's, and if the Wave can get to Williams early, this one could be easy. That's a big if, though.
Winning tournaments is hard. Even in the glory days of the Rick Jones era, Tulane won the conference tourney twice in a row only once (1998 and 1999), and the '98 tournament was a Turchin Stadium. Tulane also rarely bows out in two straight, doing it in 2000, 2004 (getting outscored 26-8 before going to Oxford and winning a regional) and 2017 since the beginning of Jones' tenure. Although the pitching depth is considerably better this year than last, the Wave cannot afford to lose tonight and expect to win four in a row to reach the championship game like ECU did. It is essential to win the first two games, something Tulane did last year for the first time since the year of the second CWS appearance in 2005.
Will Teo Banks, who has been unconscious in the last two AAC tournaments (19 of 39 with five home runs and 20 RBIs in nine career games), pick up where he left off a year ago? Will Connor Rasmussen continue to be the rock star he has been all year, and from his relatively new leadoff spot? Will enough of the guys in the rest of the order (there are no holes in it) get hot? We shall see.
I'm not predicting Tulane to win it, but it's certainly a realistic possibility. I have the Wave losing to either Wichita State or East Carolina (whoever wins their winners' bracket game on Thursday) in the championship game. I'm a little concerned about the way Henry Shuffler and Jacob Moore have pitched in the last two weeks, and Tulane's starters rarely go deep into a game. One or both could end costing the Wave, which, if it wins tonight, will need big performances from Billy Price and Michael Lombardi to go all the way.
