The AAC remains third in conference RPI, ahead of the Pac-12 and Big 12 and behind only the SEC and ACC.
I don't like coming off as a skeptic, and I recognize the AAC is a really good baseball league this year, but some of the RPIs are higher than the actual play warrants.
South Florida is 21st nationally. The Bulls lost two games to FSU by the combined score of 31-4. They lost to Florida 13-3. They lost a series at highly ranked Illinois 2-1, which probably helped their RPI even though the first game was 13-1 and the second was 5-2 before they salvaged the final game 8-5. Their next-best non-conference win was against Cal Fullterton, which is 20-18. I don't know. Unless USF stays on top of the AAC--and a home series against league weakling Cincinnati put them there--I probably wouldn't put them in the NCAA tournament if I were picking the field.
UConn is 33rd. Its only non-conference wins against teams from the RPI top 100 were v. Michigan State and Boston College, neither of which is likely to make the NCAA tournament. It was swept by a really good FAU team to start the year. It also lost to Hartford (280) and Siena (236) before going 6-6 in the AAC. That's good enough for No. 33?
Houston I'll buy at No. 31, but the Cougars face road series at USF and Tulane after losing their first two conference road series at UCF and Memphis.
Tulane is 44th and the only team in the league with a winning record against the RPI top 50 at 7-6 (beat SLU twice, beat UNC Wilmington, lost to LSU, went 4-5 v. top 50 in AAC), but I'm not sure wins over SLU and UNC Wilmington will carry as much weight as wins against teams from the SEC or ACC.
Slumping UCF, which was being talked about as a regional host two weeks ago, is 47th. That's about right considering the Knights' tough non-conference schedule. They've played a whopping 19 games against RPI top 50 teams but are 8-11 in those games.
Memphis, which is 54th, has nice series wins against Houston and UCF at home but lost to Cincy on the road and played a weak non-conference schedule. The Tigers have the weakest conference schedule, too, because they have two series with Cincy.
ECU, which is 59th, is 2-8 against RPI top 100 teams out of the AAC, with the wins against No. 92 St. John's and No. 90 Campbell. That won't get it done unless the Pirates finish at or near the top of the AAC standings.
To sum up, I don't see any team in the league that is close to a lock or even probable for the NCAA field unless the NCAA pays slavish attention to the RPI, which it sometimes does. But because of the overall strength of the league, at least three teams will get in, and the tournament in Clearwater should be wild. I will be there.
I don't like coming off as a skeptic, and I recognize the AAC is a really good baseball league this year, but some of the RPIs are higher than the actual play warrants.
South Florida is 21st nationally. The Bulls lost two games to FSU by the combined score of 31-4. They lost to Florida 13-3. They lost a series at highly ranked Illinois 2-1, which probably helped their RPI even though the first game was 13-1 and the second was 5-2 before they salvaged the final game 8-5. Their next-best non-conference win was against Cal Fullterton, which is 20-18. I don't know. Unless USF stays on top of the AAC--and a home series against league weakling Cincinnati put them there--I probably wouldn't put them in the NCAA tournament if I were picking the field.
UConn is 33rd. Its only non-conference wins against teams from the RPI top 100 were v. Michigan State and Boston College, neither of which is likely to make the NCAA tournament. It was swept by a really good FAU team to start the year. It also lost to Hartford (280) and Siena (236) before going 6-6 in the AAC. That's good enough for No. 33?
Houston I'll buy at No. 31, but the Cougars face road series at USF and Tulane after losing their first two conference road series at UCF and Memphis.
Tulane is 44th and the only team in the league with a winning record against the RPI top 50 at 7-6 (beat SLU twice, beat UNC Wilmington, lost to LSU, went 4-5 v. top 50 in AAC), but I'm not sure wins over SLU and UNC Wilmington will carry as much weight as wins against teams from the SEC or ACC.
Slumping UCF, which was being talked about as a regional host two weeks ago, is 47th. That's about right considering the Knights' tough non-conference schedule. They've played a whopping 19 games against RPI top 50 teams but are 8-11 in those games.
Memphis, which is 54th, has nice series wins against Houston and UCF at home but lost to Cincy on the road and played a weak non-conference schedule. The Tigers have the weakest conference schedule, too, because they have two series with Cincy.
ECU, which is 59th, is 2-8 against RPI top 100 teams out of the AAC, with the wins against No. 92 St. John's and No. 90 Campbell. That won't get it done unless the Pirates finish at or near the top of the AAC standings.
To sum up, I don't see any team in the league that is close to a lock or even probable for the NCAA field unless the NCAA pays slavish attention to the RPI, which it sometimes does. But because of the overall strength of the league, at least three teams will get in, and the tournament in Clearwater should be wild. I will be there.