I don't claim to be an expert on the league--I never saw East Carolina, Memphis or Cincinnati play--but I did follow the results closely. Here's a stab at what will happen in the AAC tourney.
1) Houston
The Cougars, who won the Baton Rouge regional last year, were supposed to win the AAC title this season and proved as good as advertised after a slow start and despite a slew of injuries, winning their last six series to finish 16-8. They have the best starting pitching in the league, the best power and the best team. They also have plenty of incentive in Clearwater. Even though they are the only team assured of an at-large bid if they go 0-2, they are playing to host a regional and would almost certainly do so if they won the tourney.
Prediction: 3-0, bracket winner, tourney champion
2) East Carolina
New coach Cliff Godwin won the AAC coach of the year honor that should have gone to David Pierce, but it's understandable since the Pirates went 15-9 to Tulane's 13-11 and beat the Wave comfortably in the season series. Still, they won only one non-conference game of note (NC State) and are an underwhelming bunch statistically aside from being an excellent defense team (second to Tulane in fielding percentage, and opponents stole only nine bases in 16 attempts). They are just OK at the plate and OK on the mound. So why did they finish one game behind Houston for first place? They won their last eight one-run games (including two out of conference), an incredible stat that is partly the function of good fortune.
Prediction: 1-2
3) Tulane
The Wave is underwhelming statistically, too, but only because it was so anemic at the plate, finishing last in the league in runs scored during conference games. Tulane was not dominant on the mound in conference play, either, posting the fourth-best ERA. But it was really good defensively, posting the best fielding percentage, making sensational plays in the infield, having a catcher (Jake Rogers) with an incredibly accurate arm (though he slumped late) and a right fielder (Lex Kaplan) with a bazooka for an arm. If Tulane swings the bat like it did in the last 12 innings against Memphis (14 runs), it can win the tournament. If it reverts to form, it won't last long.
Prediction: 2-2
4) South Florida
I doubted Mark Kingston's club all year, and after leading the conference standings for a while, the Bulls lost four consecutive series. They came up empty against top notch opponents out of the league, getting beaten by FSU, Florida and Illinois by the combined score of 72-18 (though beating Illinois once, which likely will get them an at-large bid). They hit pretty well and run pretty well but have little power. They pitch pretty well but are not overwhelming on the mound. They field pretty well but can be run on. And they will play their first two tournament games without coach Mark Kingston, who will be serving the rest of his five-game suspension for confronting an umpire after a loss at Tulane two weeks ago. They do get to play close to home, where they went 8-4 in conference play.
Prediction: 2-2
5) Memphis
The Tigers spit the bit on Saturday against Tulane after putting themselves in position for an at-large bid despite a poor RPI number that came because they lost two series to woeful Cincinnati. This was the most unpredictable team in the league, winning series against champion Houston and second-place East Carolina but somehow losing at home and on the road, as just mentioned. to Cincinnati. They never won a series opener until beating Tulane and were 11-3 on the rest of the weekend until getting swept in the doubleheader by the Wave. They were second-to-last in runs scored, in the middle of the pack in pitching and had the worst fielding percentage in the AAC. The series losses to Cincy and a 16-inning win against pitiful Tennessee-Martin last week don't bode well.
Prediction: 1-2
6) Connecticut
If you look at the stats, it's hard to figure out how the Huskies finished sixth with an 11-13 record. They outscored their opponents in AAC play by 39, second only to Houston, while posting the second best ERA and scoring the most runs. Their 1-2 punch of Carson Cross, the AAC Pitcher of the Year, and Anthony Kay is awesome. Defense is an issue. They finished seventh in fielding percentage and turned a measly 11 double plays in 24 conference plays, five fewer than any other team. They also went 1-7 in their last eight conference games decided by two or fewer runs, including a sweep at Houston last weekend when the Cougars won by a total of four runs. If the Huskies hit reasonably well in Clearwater, this is a dangerous team.
Prediction: 3-0, bracket winner, lose to Houston in championship game
7) Central Florida
The Knights can't pitch at a high level, so they had no chance of sustaining their early-season stint inside the top 10 of national polls. They also stopped hitting, even at their hitter-friendly park, despite having a roster is loaded with talented batters. They are better than their performance in the league and if their one big-time pitcher, Zach Rogers (10-0, 2.18 ERA) handles ECU in the opener, they are capable of a run that will bolster a resume featuring series wins over Ole Miss and Houston and a win against Florida. But I don't like the mindset of this team, particularly compared to ECU in that first game. On paper, Rogers should win that one.
Prediction: 0-2
8) Cincinnati
AAC Player of the Year Ian Happ is a heck of a hitter. Everything else about this team is god-awful.
Prediction: 0-2
1) Houston
The Cougars, who won the Baton Rouge regional last year, were supposed to win the AAC title this season and proved as good as advertised after a slow start and despite a slew of injuries, winning their last six series to finish 16-8. They have the best starting pitching in the league, the best power and the best team. They also have plenty of incentive in Clearwater. Even though they are the only team assured of an at-large bid if they go 0-2, they are playing to host a regional and would almost certainly do so if they won the tourney.
Prediction: 3-0, bracket winner, tourney champion
2) East Carolina
New coach Cliff Godwin won the AAC coach of the year honor that should have gone to David Pierce, but it's understandable since the Pirates went 15-9 to Tulane's 13-11 and beat the Wave comfortably in the season series. Still, they won only one non-conference game of note (NC State) and are an underwhelming bunch statistically aside from being an excellent defense team (second to Tulane in fielding percentage, and opponents stole only nine bases in 16 attempts). They are just OK at the plate and OK on the mound. So why did they finish one game behind Houston for first place? They won their last eight one-run games (including two out of conference), an incredible stat that is partly the function of good fortune.
Prediction: 1-2
3) Tulane
The Wave is underwhelming statistically, too, but only because it was so anemic at the plate, finishing last in the league in runs scored during conference games. Tulane was not dominant on the mound in conference play, either, posting the fourth-best ERA. But it was really good defensively, posting the best fielding percentage, making sensational plays in the infield, having a catcher (Jake Rogers) with an incredibly accurate arm (though he slumped late) and a right fielder (Lex Kaplan) with a bazooka for an arm. If Tulane swings the bat like it did in the last 12 innings against Memphis (14 runs), it can win the tournament. If it reverts to form, it won't last long.
Prediction: 2-2
4) South Florida
I doubted Mark Kingston's club all year, and after leading the conference standings for a while, the Bulls lost four consecutive series. They came up empty against top notch opponents out of the league, getting beaten by FSU, Florida and Illinois by the combined score of 72-18 (though beating Illinois once, which likely will get them an at-large bid). They hit pretty well and run pretty well but have little power. They pitch pretty well but are not overwhelming on the mound. They field pretty well but can be run on. And they will play their first two tournament games without coach Mark Kingston, who will be serving the rest of his five-game suspension for confronting an umpire after a loss at Tulane two weeks ago. They do get to play close to home, where they went 8-4 in conference play.
Prediction: 2-2
5) Memphis
The Tigers spit the bit on Saturday against Tulane after putting themselves in position for an at-large bid despite a poor RPI number that came because they lost two series to woeful Cincinnati. This was the most unpredictable team in the league, winning series against champion Houston and second-place East Carolina but somehow losing at home and on the road, as just mentioned. to Cincinnati. They never won a series opener until beating Tulane and were 11-3 on the rest of the weekend until getting swept in the doubleheader by the Wave. They were second-to-last in runs scored, in the middle of the pack in pitching and had the worst fielding percentage in the AAC. The series losses to Cincy and a 16-inning win against pitiful Tennessee-Martin last week don't bode well.
Prediction: 1-2
6) Connecticut
If you look at the stats, it's hard to figure out how the Huskies finished sixth with an 11-13 record. They outscored their opponents in AAC play by 39, second only to Houston, while posting the second best ERA and scoring the most runs. Their 1-2 punch of Carson Cross, the AAC Pitcher of the Year, and Anthony Kay is awesome. Defense is an issue. They finished seventh in fielding percentage and turned a measly 11 double plays in 24 conference plays, five fewer than any other team. They also went 1-7 in their last eight conference games decided by two or fewer runs, including a sweep at Houston last weekend when the Cougars won by a total of four runs. If the Huskies hit reasonably well in Clearwater, this is a dangerous team.
Prediction: 3-0, bracket winner, lose to Houston in championship game
7) Central Florida
The Knights can't pitch at a high level, so they had no chance of sustaining their early-season stint inside the top 10 of national polls. They also stopped hitting, even at their hitter-friendly park, despite having a roster is loaded with talented batters. They are better than their performance in the league and if their one big-time pitcher, Zach Rogers (10-0, 2.18 ERA) handles ECU in the opener, they are capable of a run that will bolster a resume featuring series wins over Ole Miss and Houston and a win against Florida. But I don't like the mindset of this team, particularly compared to ECU in that first game. On paper, Rogers should win that one.
Prediction: 0-2
8) Cincinnati
AAC Player of the Year Ian Happ is a heck of a hitter. Everything else about this team is god-awful.
Prediction: 0-2
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