Tulane's 5-3 win today over South Florida was huge. We used three of our top five pitchers in the game and, I'd guess, Gibaut and possibly Duester and even Merrill could pitch an inning or so on Sunday. Gibbs is almost surely the Sunday starter now and we need a solid six innings out of him. Anything less will probably mean Rankin or Yandel coming in and nether has pitched well lately.

But, back to today. Our 5-3 win today is every bit as important as the 12-0 loss on Friday. Baseball, unlike football and basketball, place zero emphasis on score differential-- as it should in my book. That's why Las Vegas bookies give points in basketball and football and only set betting odds in baseball. Winning by a big number one day has little-to-no influence on the results of the next game. Whether you win 20-0 or 1-0 makes no difference.

I remember the 1960 World Series, before many on this site were born, I'd guess. The Pittsburgh Pirates won four game by a total of seven runs. And the Yankees won the other three games by a total of 35 runs. The Pirates were World Champions! It's how it is and how it should be.

If we can squeak out another win on Sunday, we win the series, no matter the results of the one "blow out."

Roll Wave!!!

TYLER WILSON

Why the dramatic difference from Friday and today?

"Last night we didn’t get timely hits. We had runners on in a couple different situations and we just didn’t come through. Today was different, and that played a huge role in the win."

Your home run was a no-doubter. What was the pitch?

"He’d thrown three great ones to me the at-bat before when I struck out on three straight changeups. I was just trying to see it up and got lucky."

How much was this win needed?

"We needed it. We always need timely hit. You can never score too many runs, but it’s just awesome to be the guy to do it."

What was said after last night's 12-0 loss?

"We knew that we had something to play for and nothing to lose, so we just went out there and gave it everything we had. It wasn’t all that pretty, but we came out on top, and that’s what we needed to do."

Why was it easy to bounce back from a loss like that?

"That was ugly last night, I don’t care who it is, 12-0 isn’t a good looking game, so we knew we had to come out today and prove a point that that’s not who we are."

How big are the stakes tomorrow?

"This is the biggest game of the year. We’re playing for a regional, so this is definitely the biggest game I’ve played in here at Tulane."

JACKSON JOHNSON

Can you comment on your day?

"It was awesome. I was glad to get out there and give our team a chance to win on Saturday and get the series to tomorrow so it was good."

What happened on the home run?

"Honestly, I haven’t hit a home run since Cooperstown when I was 12. In BP, they always give me crap for it but his fastball had some arm-side runs so I backed off the plate about an extra half inch and I backed up and tried to get the barrel out there."

How nice was it to provide that two-run cushion?

"Yeah, it was awesome. We were just trying to get the leadoff guy on base and try to punch another one across to get Gibaut a little leeway so it was good."

When did you find out you were in the starting lineup and batting second?

"Actually I had an exam this morning so I came in a little late for breakfast and came in and saw the lineup and was like, all right, let’s go."

What exam?

"Microeconomics."

The frustration was high yesterday. What changed?

"Coach Pierce gave us a little talk before the game and got into us a little bit and we deserved it. We were like, let’s go out there and give it everything we’ve got and try to win the series because if we wintomorrow, we’re right back where we want to be."

What do you think about your chances tomorrow?

"I think Gibbs is going to give us an excellent chance on the mound, fill up the zone and come back with the same tenacity tomorrow."

DAVID PIERCE

On today's win...

"The win was a lot better, definitely, and I thought we just scratched and clawed all day. It wasn't pretty at times, but we just hung in there. We did a super job on turning three double plays and picking up our pitchers today."
We were fortunate, but the key to the entire game was we really just scratched and clawed and we gave ourselves a chance even though, at times, we looked pretty ugly."

On starting Jackson Johnson...

"He's very competitive. What I love about Jackson is that he's got a lot of confidence in himself and he's been swinging the bat really well. I talked to him about a week ago and said you're a perfect type of guy to be a spark plug for us when we need it. And boy, he was awesome today and we needed it."

On Wilson being so versatile at the plate...

"It was outstanding. He got beat on the changeup early in the game where he chased down and all he had to do was see the changeup up and be ready for it and put a great swing on it. And he executed the bunt and gave us another opportunity to tack on a run."

On the dugout waking up after T-Willy's bomb...

"They had something to cheer about. It gave us the lead, so it really excited the team and we finished strong."

On Massey's final line...

"He had stuff on the ball. I think he was as frustrated as anyone. He wasn't doing anything different. I don't know if he tensed up or pressed a little bit but it didn't end the way he would've expected it to end."

On the relief pitching being key...

"Duester was not sharp but he was good enough to win."

On winning while issuing 10 walks...

"I feel very fortunate. The reason we were able to overcome it was because of the double plays. We made some pitches but it was just a stressful game."

On having to take on Sean Allen's job as third base coach after he was ejected Friday, which carries automatic one-game suspension ...

"I told Coach Allen he'd better quit being thrown out. I'm getting stressed out."

On Sunday's game...

"It's got so much on the line. There's so many implications of what happens after tomorrow's ballgame. It's not the end, by any means, but it sure positions us a lot better."

On Gibbs getting tomorrow's start...

"I just expect him to really trust his stuff in the strikezone. He throws three pitches that are quality. He's not going to overpower anyone but he can pitch ahead of guys if he just trusts his stuff in the zone."

On Gibaut's availability...

"He'll probably be good for at least two [innings]. He's pretty fresh."

On Jake Willsey ignoring his stop sign and scoring Tulane's first run ...

"It was a great move, wasn't it? It was a deke all the way (said jokingly)."

With Payton Henson transferring, Ed Conroy has lost 16 of his 25 scholarship recruits before they completed their eligibility at Tulane. Here is a rundown of all of the scholarship players who have signed under Conroy's tenure and what happened. I added walk-on Ben Cherry, too.

2010-11

Kevin Brown, G, Houston

--He played in 18 games as a freshman, averaging 1.3 points, and did not return for his sophomore years. He was part of a marginal 3-man recruiting class.

Kevin Thomas, C, Waco, Texas

--Some observers thought he teased with some good stretches he could not sustain, but the reality is he was a stiff with a low basketball I.Q. (and very high I.Q. off the court) who had some shot-blocking ability but nothing else. He stayed all four years, never averaging more than 2.5 points or 2.2 rebounds. No coach could have gotten much more out of him because his primary focus was not basketball.

Jonathan Frye, G, Greensboro, N.C.

--He had a concussion early on his freshman year, left for North Carolina and never returned. I had a devil of a time getting a straight answer on his status when it went down, but he was not a D1-cailber player anyway.

2011-12

Ricky Tarrant, G, Pleasant Grove, Ala.

--We all know the story there. Tarrant exploded on to the scene as a freshman, a Conroy trademark for point guards, and looked like he could become one of the best players in Tulane history while being named CUSA Freshman of the Year and making the All-CUSA first team. I soured on his upside when he did not improve as a sophomore, exhibiting streaky shooting around 40 percent, but he was an excellent all-around player with an outstanding work ethic. Then he transferred to Alabama, catching Conroy completely off guard when he found out after the fact he was unhappy at Tulane. Tarrant wanted to play closer to home at his dream SEC school, but he would have stayed if he had been happier. He had a lot of freedom in Conroy's generally rigid offense and a green light to shoot.

Grant Fiorentinos, C, Cape Town, South Africa

--Another stiff who was misevaluated as someone who could play at the D1 level. Fiorentinos actually started early in his freshman year but never left the bench in the last two-thirds of the season, transferring after averaging 2.0 points and 1.6 rebounds.

Jay Hook, G, Waco, Texas

--The perfect example of an improving player who stays for four years and can help build programs. The only problem is there is no other example in Conroy's tenure. Hook hit a few 3s as a freshman but basically was a benchwarmer his first two years, then took advantage of a chance for playing time as a junior and become of the nation's most deadeye 3-point shooters with an incredibly quick release despite playing with a damaged wrist. He was not quite as reliable as a senior against better competition with more attention paid to him, but he made the most out of his two skills--shooting and jumping. He was an underrated rebounder.

Tre Drye, F, Baton Rouge

--His work ethic and desire were admirable. Unfortunately, Drye was about 4 inches too short to be an effective player against good competition. At about 6-5, he could not get his shot off against taller defenders and did not have any range to step away from the basket, so he became a garbage man who was undersized every night out. He averaged a career high 6.9 points and 7.6 rebounds as a junior before dipping to 4.7 points and 5.3 rebounds in the tougher AAC, going a long stretch without being able to put the ball in the basket. Still, he stayed all four years, started all but two games in his last two years and was a regular starter in his final three.

Malte Ziegenhagen, G, Berlin, Germany

--Not good enough for D1. Ziegenhagen, a 3-point shooting specialist, made only 9 of 33 3-pointers in his one year before transferring to Hawaii Pacific, where he averaged 14.8 points and 15.1 points in two years before moving to Northwood University, where he averaged 13.9 points.

Josh Davis, F, Raleigh, N.C.

--Conroy did a good job getting him as a transfer from NC State and a terrific job developing him as a player. Davis, who sat out 2011-12 as a transfer, went from a garbage man as a junior to maybe the best player in CUSA as a senior, averaging 17.6 points and 10.3 rebounds while creating off the dribble from the top of the key in some sets. Yet, he joined the exodus of players at the end of 2012-13, transferring to San Diego State for his graduate senior year, where he went back to being a garbage man with no play ever called for him but did get to play in the NCAA tournament. He also turned into a good free throw shooter in his last year at Tulane but regressed dramatically in that category at San Diego State.

Tomas Bruha, C, Prague, Czech Republic

--He came in with bad knees and left the same way. After playing his freshman year at San Francisco and spending his next season at Southeastern (Iowa) Community College before being sidelined by a knee injury, he played nine games at Tulane in 2011-12, 18 the next year and 33 ineffective games as a senior, when his legs were shot. A non-factor.

Lotanna Nwogbo, PW, Lithonia, Ga.

--He has flashes, particularly in a game against Memphis, as a freshman, but he had a hard time getting off the bench as a sophomore, playing a total of 100 minutes and averaging 1.1 points before transferring with all of the other guys. He looked like a guy who could develop into a decent player if he had stayed. He averaged 12.9 points and 5.6 rebounds for Longwood, a small D1 school that went 11-23 this past year.

Ben Cherry, G, Charlotte, N.C.

--He never was on scholarship, but Cherry deserves mention because he carved out a role as a sharpshooter in his final year at Tulane and still transferred to hometown Charlotte as a graduate senior. Having played for Conroy at The Citadel, too, Cherry wanted to return close to home but also was not happy about not getting a scholarship.

2012-13

Louis Dabney, G, New Orleans

--A warrior. Dabney was the most significant player who DID NOT TRANSFER at the end of 2012-13. After a rough freshman year when he was recovering from a torn ACL he sustained as a senior at Riverside Academy, he averaged a team-best 15.2 points as a sophomore and was named second-team All-AAC this past season despite struggling to make shots in conference play. Barring any unforeseen news, he will become the fourth recruited freshman to play four years under Conroy at Tulane.

Kajon Mack, G, Gardena, Calif.

--The jury is out on him. Mack arrived as an athletic under-the-radar athletic recruit with no real position and averaged 2.7 points as a freshman while starting seven times. He missed all of 2013-14 with a foot injury and did not find a consistent role when he returned this past season, averaging 3.3 points and 2.3 rebounds while shooting miserably from 3-point range. He can't play point guard, so his role next year is unclear.

Marc Eddy Norelia, F, Orlando

--He was not ready to contribute as a freshman but had the pedigree to develop if he had stuck around, but he bailed like so many of his teammates after one year when he played in nine games and never scored. He transferred to Florida Gulf Coast and averaged 8.3 and 5.2 rebounds as a starter. Not a difference-maker, but he could have been a contributor at power forward, a big weak spot at Tulane.

RaAnthony Sanders, G, Holt, Ala.

--He was considered a bit of a reach when he signed, and he turned out to be a huge reach. Not a D1 talent. He played nine games and scored four points. He transferred to Pensacola State Junior College, where he averaged 10.7 points (while shooting 37 percent), 4.6 rebounds and 2.2 assists in 2014. He played for Albany this past season, starting all 33 games on an NCAA tournament team while averaging 9.7 points and 4.6 rebounds.

The Times Picayune is reporting and the kid's twitter has confirmed that Ricky Preston, WR from Hahnville, has signed with Tulane for the 2015 season. He apparently got his academic situation under control and is eligible immediately. Based on previous experience, I'd hold my breath on how Tulane and the NCAA get the "paperwork" in order, but, this would be a good addition to our wide receiver corps. By my calculations of his rankings, he would be the highest regarded (consensus) signee in our 2015 class unless Bo Wallace, who reportedly is not going to attend Notre Dame, should happen to pick the Wave.

Roll Wave!!!

The Wave dropped two spots to 41 without playing today, largely because SLU took a terrible loss to Southern that dropped the Lions 11 spots to 42.

Normally Tulane would benefit from a loss by a fellow bubble team, but that one hurt. The three wins v. SLU looked a lot better before the big drop today.

Regardless, Tulane has a huge chance to upgrade its RPI this weekend with three games against mediocre USF, which somehow is No. 29 in the RPI, indication one of the many huge flaws in the formula. USF played Florida twice and FSU twice this year and was outscored 48-8, yet benefitted in the RPI because it does not account for margin of defeat. That's ridiculous. UNO could have played those teams four times and lost by the combined score of 48-8.

I was going to ask how the strength program was coming, until I read this morning the strength coach was fired. What gives.

Realistically, Lorenzo Doss is the only Tulane player with a chance to be drafted in the next two days, and even he is not a lock despite being projected as a fourth- to sixth-round pick.

At the end of spring practice I asked CJ about Doss and anyone else who would get a look from the NFL., and I don't think I ever posted his answers.

Here they are:

What are your thoughts on Doss' draft potential?

"I like what Lorenzo’s doing. He’s physical, he’s learned to be physical, he can cover and he can intercept the ball. The best thing about him is he can intercept the ball. He’s one of those guys I would definitely take a long, hard look at and I would get him if I could."

Was 2014 a learning experience for Doss? He clearly did not play as well as he did in his first two seasons.

"I would say this. One thing about that position is you definitely have to have amnesia. He has the ability to come back from some stuff. I think he’ll be good. When Doss gets with a team and gets settled in and learns what to do, I think he’ll be good."

How high do you see him going in the draft?

"You never know with the draft. If I say first round I could be wrong and if I say seventh round or free agent I could be wrong, so I don’t know. Wherever he goes, he’ll make a team and he’ll play a lot of football."

Any other possibilities for the draft for your players this year?

"(Sean)Donnelly is a big, athletic tackle and everybody wants size. I really like the athleticism of Tyler Gilbert. He may be the one guy that somebody takes a chance on. You get him in camp and you get him moving, and I think he can be something. (Matt) Marfisi is a big kid that may be able to do some stuff.

What about Taurean Nixon?

"The one thing everybody loves about T Nix is his speed. He can run and he looks good, so guys are definitely asking about him. It will be crucial for him to run well at the Pro Day. If he runs well (which he did), I think he will get a great opportunity."

We talked to Patrick Duester, Lex Kaplan and David Pierce after Sunday's loss. Here are their comments:

DUESTER

When did struggles began

"The first inning I felt fine. I only threw like five or six pitches (actually four). I felt good the first inning, and the second inning after that until I came out I threw maybe three pitches that I was satisfied with. I can’t really explain what happened after that, but I just never established any of my other pitches."

Specific problems

"Location, and my breaking ball was just spinning out of my hand. It wasn’t the tight slider that it usually is."

Houston good at plate

"Any time you face a team like this, you have to be able to hit your spot as a pitcher and you have to be committed to that spot and be able to throw a fastball and a secondary pitch, whether it be a breaking ball or changeups, for them to chase or in the strike zone, and it didn’t really happen."

No run support

"They put the runs up first. If we get two or three in the first or second inning, obviously it’s easier, but I just never gave my team a chance to win. Obviously when they put up five (runs) after three, it kind of gets down in the dugout, but we just have to stay up."

First weekend start bring any extra pressure?

"The mentality was right. I was anxious to get back out there on the mound. I hadn’t been on the mound in a while (eight days). I was ready to go, but I just didn’t have it."

Frustration of losing series after winning opener

"Coach (Phil) Haig and coach Pierce were both stressing that this was a big game. We knew it. We just have to get the next one. We have to keep playing."

KAPLAN

On Houston pitcher Seth Romero

"He had a live fast ball and was hitting some of his spots. His breaking ball was all right, but he just really commanded the fast ball. I just saw a few pitches that I could drive and was hitting the ball well today. I put a few good swings on them."

Avoiding shutout with run in 9th inning"It’s important, but we need to come out next week and do better than we did this weekend. We started off hot and we ended up losing two straight and bad at-bats and not great pitching. It just all around wasn’t a good team effort."

Frustrating losing 2 in row

"It’s very frustrating because we need to win games. We want to play in the postseason and we want to make a regional and it would be nice to be an at-large bid. Losing this weekend is rough, so we have to come back next weekend and be strong and play well because I know South Florida is a good team, too."

Good defense all weekend

"We played good defense, which wins games. Defense and pitching win games, but obviously our pitching wasn’t there this weekend and our hitting really except for Friday."

Getting some rest with no midweek game

"We get two days off to mentally get prepared for the next weekend. We’ll come back out next Wednesday and really work hard in BP and be right for the next weekend."

PIERCE

On being tough getting down early and trying to come back

“We saw him (Romero) a little bit when we were there, but I think he’s one of the best left-handers in the country, and he’s just a freshman. He’s got a bright future; he pitched really well, attacked the zone really well, and put a lot of good stuff on the ball.”

On if avoiding the shutout with 9th inning run being something to build on

“Not at all.”

On Duester’s performance

“Yeah, he just wasn’t sharp. He’s been a little tender, that’s why we’ve been holding him back, and that’s why we had a pretty quick trigger. He just got the ball up in some situations that got him in trouble.”

On Tulane pitching staff issuing eight walks making it tough to win

“There’s no doubt about that. Some of the guys are out there when it is 6-0 because I want to see if we have anything in the tank with those guys because I’m still searching. When you are in a situation where you can potentially be in a tough tournament, you have to find guys that can help you, and that’s what we did, but some of our base on balls came from them.”

On losing this big series and getting ready for next weekend

“For us right now, I think we are in a little bit of a zombie mentality. I think exams kick-in more than people acknowledge when you’re playing a good team like that. We are going to take Monday andTuesday off, let them finish and get prepared for their exams; let their bodies and mental side of the game just kind of get away for a couple days and rest.”

On improvement after intense batting cage practices

“I just think it’s much more mental than anything, and then you get frustrated when you’re facing good stuff like today.”

On if Tulane will face two better pitchers back to back than these two Houston ones

“No. You can talk SEC, ACC; you can talk any league in the country, when those two guys are right, they are as tough as anybody.”



On looking ahead to USF…


“South Florida is good. Their Friday night guy is one of the best guys in the league. I’m really getting tired of facing everybody that has a below 2.00 ERA, but that’s what it is, and that’s what this league is. We are in the hunt and we have a shot, so that’s how we will attack it.”



On John Gandolfo needing to improve…


“It’s not just John, it’s a few players. They’ve got to understand that there’s more to just getting hits; there’s other ways to execute and help the ball club offensively, and that’s what we have to attack.”



On a great defensive weekend with no errors…


“That’s always something you can build on, because you can take pride and confidence in a great job of playing defense. We demonstrated a great double play today. It’s tough when pitchers are walking guys as well as seeing the lopsided scores, so I commend the defense.”

After looking like it had a shot to be the top RPI team in the AAC with a sweep of Houston, Tulane lost the last two games and dropped back down to 39.

If the season ended today, I don't think Tulane would get in the NCAA field, but the season didn't end today. Tulane has now lost 4 of 6 series in the league, so winning the last two against USF at home and Memphis on the road is imperative. The Wave matches up better with both of them than Houston, which has two terrific starting pitchers who toyed with Tulane's light bats.

Here are the RPIs for the rest of the AAC teams:

Houston 21
South Florida 29
East Carolina 44
Connecticut 46
UCF 52
Memphis 57
Cincinnati 161

I think Houston is a close to lock for a bid now. Everyone else is jockeying for a spot, although Memphis was really hurt by losing two of three at home to Cincy.

With the AAC still ranking third overall among conferences, it is likely the league will get four teams in regionals. My guess is Tulane would be fourth or fifth in the pecking order right now behind Houston, South Florida, East Carolina, but it's very close after Houston. I still think Tulane needs to win the next two series to be comfortable.

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Quotes after Tulane beats Houston 3-1, pulls into five-way tie for first in AAC:

DAVID PIERCE

On sending Jake Willsey to tie the game

“We just felt like there weren’t a lot of opportunities out there tonight. We were going to challenge them to make the play so we tried to do a good job by sending him and we were safe.”

On missing the chance to score in the first inning

“We really came out and we swung the bats well early, but we didn’t have anything to show for it. [Their starter] settled in with it, he’s good, but we were able to just hang in there. I felt Corey Merrill was the key. It wasn’t his prettiest night, but he got the job done.“


On being tied for first in the American

“It’s exciting. It’s exciting to be right in the middle of the hunt and that’s what you ask for the first week of May. We’re in a position where it’s anybody’s ballgame, and we’re included.”


On being 2-0 on the week after saying Wave was in position to control destiny

“It feels great. We had a great win on Tuesday, and those [kind of wins] are emotional and they’re tough to come back from. I think the kids were ready to play. It was a tough ballgame, but we did a good job.”


On Gibaut pitching so (theatrically)

“He’s just had so much stuff on the ball. If he pounds the strike zone, he’s going to be successful, and sometimes he’s successful when he doesn’t. He puts a lot of pressure on us.”

IAN GIBAUT

On struggling at first in eighth inning

"I just had to make an adjustment. I was obviously all over the place at first, but I just kind of gathered myself on the mound and said, it's go time, let's get this done. We've gotta win this game."

From last to first in less than two weeks

"It's awesome. You always know that you're never out of things. This league is all bunched up right now. Everyone is going to be able to win this league."

Significance of winning opener v. Houston

"We're looking to win every series from now on out. That's our goal. If we win every series, I think we control our own destiny."

JAKE WILLSEY

on decision to tag up on shallow fly ball

"It was not really my decision. (Third base) Coach (Sean) Allen made it. I had my back to the bag, and fairly late as the ball was descending, he said go, so I tagged, got a good jump and was able to come in safely pretty easily."

Likely would have been out if good throw, right

"It would have been close, but I still think I would have had it. It would have been closer. Aggression is really the key.

On his infield hit that got inning started

"If you put the ball in play, good things are going to happen. I had two strikes, I put the ball in play, it was a chopper and I was able to beat it out. I didn't want to strike out because then you don't have a chance for anything good to happen."

From last to first

"We feel like we're the best team in the league. We're in the best conference in the country and we feel like we're the top team in the league. We plan on being at the top when the season ends and win every series from here on out. We put ourselves in a pretty good position tonight. We beat a very good team here, a Friday night guy and were able to beat him. It took us a little while, but we were able to get the bats going eventually."

The last three weeks of the regular season should be really exciting, but Tulane still has a lot of work to do after getting in position to chase its first regional berth in seven years. A lot of work. The metrics don’t favor Tulane—yet.

UCF and Cincinnati, the two teams Tulane beat in the last two weeks, are tied for last place in the standings now. Let’s keep this hot streak in perspective. UCF, which was ranked in the top 10 nationally a month ago, is 5-10 in the AAC and has lost 12 of its last 16 games, including a 9-3 defeat to North Florida this past Tuesday. Aside from two home series wins against Memphis and UCF, Cincinnati (13-30) has been awful all year. The next three weeks, when Tulane faces conference co-leaders Houston and Memphis and USF at home before traveling to Memphis, will make or break the Wave’s at-large NCAA regional hopes.

Tulane's best wins are against SLU (twice) and UNC Wilmington, neither of which is a lock for the tournament. Tulane has a bad series loss to UC Riverside, which has an RPI of 208 and is 13-28. Tulane is 3-6 against fellow AAC contenders. At the very least, Tulane probably has to go 5-4 in the last three weeks to finish with a winning record in the AAC.

Here are my thoughts on the pecking order of the six AAC teams in contention at the moment:

1) Houston

RPI: 26.

Ranked in a couple of polls, the Cougars (29-15, 9-6) don't have a terrible loss and are 6-3 against their fellow contenders in the AAC. I'm not sold on them as a slam dunk, though, because they are 8-9 against the RPI top 50. 13-12 against the top 100 and don't have a win against a surefire tourney team. They could drop as far as sixth in the standings if they struggle in the next three weeks. After playing at Tulane this weekend, they don't have another road game, getting ECU and UConn at home.

2) Memphis

RPI: 42

Ranked by Baseball America, the Tigers (29-13, 9-6) are 11-8 against the top 50 and 16-9 against the top 100, easily the bet numbers in the league in those categories. They beat Arkansas and Ole Miss 1 out of 2/. They also still have a home series against Cincinnati, which won't help the RPI but will help their bid for the league's regular season title. The schedule is very favorable, with a trip to UCF and a home series vs. Tulane after Cincinnati. They are 6-3 against the fellow AAC contenders. So what's the nagging doubt? The non-conference schedule is not great, with the four games against Arkansas and Ole Miss the only matchups against teams above No. 50 and seven wins against bottom feeders Eastern Illinois and Alcorn State. They lost a series at Cincy. And they're Memphis, which is not supposed to carry weight but probably would in a close call. There's just not much pedigree.

3) South Florida

RPI: 24

USF's RPI is preposterous, but it usually matters to the selection committee. The Bulls (28-16-1, 9-6) have been largely uncompetitive against top notch teams, losing three games to Florida and FSU by the combined score of 44-7 and dropping two to Illinois by the combined score of 18-3 before salvaging the finale. They are 11-14 against top 100 teams but do have a win against traditional power Cal Fullterton, which struggled early in the year but is hot now. Their schedule might get them in the field even though they did not perform well against the best teams on it. They are 6-6 against fellow AAC contenders and are facing a stretch of eight straight road games. A pair of series against UCF sandwich a trip to Tulane, and they better beat their imploding in-state rivals to get on the right side of the bubble.

4) UConn

RPI: 39

The RPI loves UConn (29-13, 7-8), too, and I'm not sure why. It's best win out of conference was v. Michigan State, which is No. 31 in the RPI but unlikely to make the NCAA tournament at 25-17 right now. Aside from getting swept by FAU to start the year, the non-conference schedule is weak as it usually is for northern teams. UConn is 6-10 v. the RPI top 50 and 11-13 against the top 100 and 5-7 against fellow AAC contenders. The key for the Huskies is winning a series at ECU this weekend because they get sorry Cincinnati at home the following week and can vault into contention for the regular season title heading into a final series at Houston.

5) East Carolina

RPI: 44

Other than being tied for the conference lead, the Pirates (29-16, 9-6) don't have much going for them. The thing is, they still have a series left with Cincinnati, so winning the regular season title is a realistic possibility. They have a home series with UConn and a trip to Houston before playing Cincy. They are only 6-11 v. the top 50 and are 13-14 vs. the top 100. Their best non-conference win is against No. 53 NC State, and that won't cut it unless they finish atop the AAC standings. They are 6-6 against fellow AAC contenders.

6) Tulane

RPI: 45

Tulane's next eight games are at home and 10 of its last 11 games are against teams among the RPI top 42, so the Green Wave (27-16. 8-7) will have plenty of opportunities to add heft to its resume the rest of the way. Beating SLU tomorrow is imperative to show dominance against a fellow Louisiana bubble team, and winning 2 of 3 from Houston to erase the 2-1 series loss at Houston would be huge this weekend. Another series win at home against South Florida and its bogus RPI the following weekend would give Tulane a nice RPI boost. It needs to be 33-18 overall and 12-9 entering what could be a tough final series at Memphis.

The difference between the top six teams in the AAC is not huge, so this order can change dramatically in the next three weeks. David Pierce likes Tulane's positioning.

"It’s exactly where you want to be in late April, and that’s having an opportunity to control what you control, and we have that opportunity," he said Monday. "We talk a lot about the RPI. It’s not the bottom line, it’s only one measurement, but it tells you the quality of the opponents that we have in the next 11 games."

Coach Pierce is obviously doing a great job. He’s taken a team from last year that went 23-29 to a contender for a regional bid. And he’s done it having lost several of his best pitchers (Mapes, Leblanc, McKenzie, and France), one of his better hitters (Garner), and added essentially only one pitcher, Duester, to the group who contribute most to the team. Outstanding!

But our lack of pitching depth is starting to show. Coach clearly has started to lose confidence (deservedly so) in several members of our staff and six guys (Merrill, Gibbs, Massey, Duester, Yandel, and Gibault) have now thrown over 85% of our innings. That percentage is likely to go up. Of course, their combined ERA is 2.60 while our next three guys out of the pen (Rankin, Steele, and Gross) have a combined 4.91 ERA. So, It’s not hard to tell why we’re sticking with the “big six.” But it means we’re having to stay with guys when a better replacement might dictate a pitching change. And it means using one of our starters (Duester) in a closer role and using our “stopper’ (Gibault) for four innings to close out a game. That’s not usually what you’d like to see.

During the last few years, our top six pitchers based on innings thrown have accounted for between 68% and 76% of our innings. Of course, they didn’t pitch all that well, so maybe going to #7, #8, etc. made sense.

And, if using only a few pitchers was an insurmountable problem, I’d suggest looking at 2005, when the bats and balls were still lively and the Wave ruled the college baseball world until the last week of the College World Series. Seven pitchers threw 95% of our innings that year in 68 games and only ten pitchers saw the mound at all. Of course, those seven were named Bogusevic, Owings, Gomes, Crowel, Mohl, Latham, and Morgan. All but Crowel (due to injuries) were drafted, though Mohl chose to go into coaching rather than give pro baseball a shot.

So, if your starters, like in 2005, consistently go 7 innings and you have three more guys to close out the game, seven pitchers can do the trick. Right now, we don’t quite getting those seven innings out of the starters and we don’t have the solid #7 guy. We still have a good shot at getting a regional bid. Terrific coaching in my book.

Roll Wave!!!

Obviously, losing two out of three to Houston this weekend hurt our post season chances. And, as the season goes on, we must start winning "in conference" series as well as perform well OOC if we're to have ANY chance of making the regionals. But, we're probably not as far off as many people think.

Currently, we're 22-14 (3-6) and have an RPI of 51. Had we won one more conference game, we'd be 23-13 (4-5) and have an RPI of 42. Two more wins would have us at 24-12 (5-4), tied for second in the AAC, and have an RPI of 35. Had we gone 2-1 instead of 1-2 in our three conference weekends, we'd be 25-11 (6-3), in sole possession of second place in the conference, and with an RPI of 28. Of course, such results did not happen and it's all "spilt milk" anyhow.

To make the tourney as an "at large," we probably have to have at least a .500 record in conference. The conference is currently in 5th place from an RPI standpoint in a virtual "dead heat" with the Big 12 and PAC 10 for third through fifth place. We're all a long way from both 2nd and 6th place so we'll probably stay in that range. Since the AAC has a better OOC record than the Big 12, I think we'll eventually pass them and end up in 4th place. I don't think CUSA was ever better than 5th. We're in a surprisingly good baseball conference.

If we go 2-1 in each of our remaining five conference series and finish up 2-1 in our OOC games against USM, SELA, and LSU, we'd end up 34-20 (13-11), have an SOS in the 50's and an RPI in the 30's. I think that would get us "in." Much less would be a problem.

Can it be done? Yes, of course. But, we can't hit .204 like we did against Houston this weekend. We can't strike out ten times in 7 innings against a guy who has never fanned more than five in a game. And, though pitching is certainly not our primary problem, we need all of our pitchers to "get it together." Yandel had a 0.50 ERA last year in 13 appearances and, earlier this year, looked like a guy destined to leave after this season for the pros. We need THAT guy back. Gibault needs to work out of his problems. And Massey, Merrill, Gibbs, and Duester need to be at their best. Good performances from Rankin, Gross, and Steel would also be helpful.

According to Boyd's World's calculations, we need to win 11 more games to get to an RPI of 48 or better, 13 to get to an RPI of 32 and 17 to reach the top 16. Heck, that would possibly mean hosting in the first round. Why not dream?

But, because of our problems at the plate, which won't be solved until we bring in better hitters, I think our regional chances this year are slim. If we go 6-2 over the next two weeks, they'll be a lot brighter. If we go 4-4 or worse, they'll be essentially limited to winning the conference tournament.

Roll Wave!!!

Tulane’s latest commitment is a QB, Jack Abraham from Oxford, MS. (Source: http://sportsnola.com/recruiting-mississippi-prep-quarterback-jack-abraham-commits-tulane/) He’s about 6’0” tall with a good arm and quick feet. He’s very mobile, more to avoid the rush and occasionally run. But, he’s a passer first. He can make all of the throws and is very accurate both from the pocket and on the run. Of course, on his highlights, his primary wide receiver, #14, really sticks out. I looked him up too. He’s also entering his senior year and is rated by Rivals as the #2 WR in the country and #1 player in Mississippi. His name is Dekaylin Metcalf and he is already committed to Ole Miss. Sigh!!

Anyway, Abraham looks like a good recruit to me, though not a “game changer” from my perspective. He reminds me a lot of Zachary’s Lindsey Scott in the 2016 class in both his throwing and running, though Scott is probably a little faster and more prone to run. Of course, Scott was the MVP of Class 5A in Louisiana last year as a junior, so I consider that a flattering comparison.

Of particular interest, at least according to Rene Nadeau, is that he will graduate from high school in December and be ready for Spring practice. I think that's very important.

Highlights: http://www.hudl.com/athlete/1388386/highlights/161779377/v2


Roll Wave!!!

Ken Trahan is reporting (http://sportsnola.com/recruiting-st-charles-catholic-defensive-back-eric-lewis-commits-tulane/) that Eric Lewis of St. Charles Catholic, a DB, has committed to Tulane. Trahan has made several mistakes in his commitment stories in recent years but, if true, I think this is a good commit.

I included Lewis in my earlier analysis of 2016 prospects and may have done him an injustice by not placing him a little higher. Louisiana will probably produce close to 30 FBS DB's this year and I had him at #17. Reviewing his highlights today (http://www.hudl.com/athlete/2228085/highlights/217286378/v2), he looks really good.

Unless we have a great deal of attrition, some of it in the defensive backfield, we probably won't take more than a couple defensive backs, so this is a noteworthy commitment in by mind.

Roll Wave!!!

Here's the story.

http://www.tulanegreenwave.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/042315aaa.html

Here's the story from sports information. Apparently it took an extra day to process Julian's signing.

http://www.tulanegreenwave.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/042415aaa.html

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As usual, a viable take from Ed Daniels, one of the few "TV" media in New Orleans who cares about Tulane athletics.

My quibble would be with him lumping the three coaches together. David Pierce was a home run hire, and everyone in the know treated it as such. And I'm still waiting for the horrendous parking issues at Yulman Stadium to materialize.



http://clarionherald.info/clarion/i...n-letter-asks-tulane-president-fitts-for-help

I am on Pelicans duty this evening for AP. Here is Scott's story for The Advocate:

Stark had an awful second half of the season and did not appear happy. I'm surprised but not shocked at him leaving. He really struggled to score against AAC competition, although his buzzer-beating 30-footer against Cincinnati gave Tulane its best win in the Conroy tenure.

As everyone could see, Tulane needed a huge talent upgrade to compete in the AAC. Conroy is bringing in by far the best class in his tenure, but it could take a while for the new parts to jell.

http://www.theneworleansadvocate.co...4-123/tulane-lands-commitment-from-riversides

Not much needs to be said about tonight's loss. At this point, Tulane cannot compete with LSU, but the Wave will take its RPI bump and try to win a series at Cincinnati this weekend to stay within range of a regional berth.

David Pierce has done a lot of great things in his first year as coach, but he can't keep his guys from getting in a funk at the plate when they struggle early. It's been going on for two years to a degree I've never seen with any team in 35 years of following college baseball. One hit against nine pitchers is preposterously inept.

The good news in Cincinnati does not have good pitching. Tulane has fared well against teams like that all year, and I don't mean it as a backhanded compliment. Last year, Tulane could not hit any pitching. This year, it has been very good in midweek games not involving LSU precisely because it matches up well with midweek starters.

The AAC remains third in conference RPI, ahead of the Pac-12 and Big 12 and behind only the SEC and ACC.

I don't like coming off as a skeptic, and I recognize the AAC is a really good baseball league this year, but some of the RPIs are higher than the actual play warrants.

South Florida is 21st nationally. The Bulls lost two games to FSU by the combined score of 31-4. They lost to Florida 13-3. They lost a series at highly ranked Illinois 2-1, which probably helped their RPI even though the first game was 13-1 and the second was 5-2 before they salvaged the final game 8-5. Their next-best non-conference win was against Cal Fullterton, which is 20-18. I don't know. Unless USF stays on top of the AAC--and a home series against league weakling Cincinnati put them there--I probably wouldn't put them in the NCAA tournament if I were picking the field.

UConn is 33rd. Its only non-conference wins against teams from the RPI top 100 were v. Michigan State and Boston College, neither of which is likely to make the NCAA tournament. It was swept by a really good FAU team to start the year. It also lost to Hartford (280) and Siena (236) before going 6-6 in the AAC. That's good enough for No. 33?

Houston I'll buy at No. 31, but the Cougars face road series at USF and Tulane after losing their first two conference road series at UCF and Memphis.

Tulane is 44th and the only team in the league with a winning record against the RPI top 50 at 7-6 (beat SLU twice, beat UNC Wilmington, lost to LSU, went 4-5 v. top 50 in AAC), but I'm not sure wins over SLU and UNC Wilmington will carry as much weight as wins against teams from the SEC or ACC.

Slumping UCF, which was being talked about as a regional host two weeks ago, is 47th. That's about right considering the Knights' tough non-conference schedule. They've played a whopping 19 games against RPI top 50 teams but are 8-11 in those games.

Memphis, which is 54th, has nice series wins against Houston and UCF at home but lost to Cincy on the road and played a weak non-conference schedule. The Tigers have the weakest conference schedule, too, because they have two series with Cincy.

ECU, which is 59th, is 2-8 against RPI top 100 teams out of the AAC, with the wins against No. 92 St. John's and No. 90 Campbell. That won't get it done unless the Pirates finish at or near the top of the AAC standings.

To sum up, I don't see any team in the league that is close to a lock or even probable for the NCAA field unless the NCAA pays slavish attention to the RPI, which it sometimes does. But because of the overall strength of the league, at least three teams will get in, and the tournament in Clearwater should be wild. I will be there.

No one worked harder or was a better character guy than Keith Pinckney, but he struggled all year as a freshman after coming in as a touted recruit for Ed Conroy at a position where previous freshman excelled. I got so down on his on-court play that one of his teammates' mothers admonished me on twitter.

I certainly thought he could still develop into a good player, but his ball-handling skills were weak for a point guard and Tulane has a ton of depth in the backcourt anyway. He is the third player to leave after the season and the only one who had really any shot to crack the rotation next year, although he probably saw the writing on the wall about his limited future.

HIs departure leaves Tulane with one available scholarship, contrary to what I posted on another thread before he left as I've apparently lost the ability to count this week.

The May 1 game.

Link