ADVERTISEMENT

RPI watch: tournament week

Southeastern, which dominated the Southland Conference this year, lost its tournament opener today and dropped to No. 50 in the RPI.

I don't think the Lions will get an at-large bid if they fail to win the tournament, but they need to stay in the top 50 to give Tulane those three top 50 wins. Not sure it's possible for them to stay in the top 50 if they lose again, though.

ULL also lost it opener, but again, I don't think it would get an at-large bid if someone else won the Sun Belt tourney.

UConn is 51st and should move into the top 50 if it beats UCF tomorrow, giving Tulane two wins and two losses. UCF is 53rd and also has a shot to get in the top 50, giving Tulane two wins and one loss.

The upshot: Tulane still needs to win at least more one game to feel secure. It's possible that SLU and UNC Wilmington will fall out of the top 50 in the next few days, leaving the Wave 5-11 v. the top 50.

Tulane adds three Oklahoma games to football schedule

I'm still going to be right about a weak opponent replacing Mississippi State, but that's missing the bigger picture. I had no inkling Tulane was about to sign a three-game deal with Oklahoma, with one of them at Yulman.

The part about Ole Miss isn't interesting, with an extra game being added for the distant future while a sooner one has been postponed. Who knows if that game at Yulman will actually happen? But getting Oklahoma at home in 2021 is a huge deal, something I thought we'd never see at Yulman. The last national power non-conference opponent to play in New Orleans was Texas in 2002 at the Superdome.

What are your thoughts on this?
  • Like
Reactions: sprout1550

Previewing the ECU game

I really like Tulane's chances today.

ECU probably will start Evan Kruczynski, who has given up 25 earned runs in his last 38 innings covering seven starts and was torched by UConn and Houston earlier this month. He has not had a good game since going the distance and allowing one run against Memphis on March 28, and he gives up a ton of hits. The Pirates could opt for David Lucroy, who has excellent stats overall but was removed from the weekend rotation after giving up 11 runs in 17 2/3 innings covering four starts, including giving up six hits and four runs to Tulane in 2 1/3 innings of a loss.

The Pirates have won nine consecutive one-run games, including six in a span of eight days in April, but they have thrown in some clunkers. Their last six losses have come by an average of eight runs.

If Corey Merrill rebounds from a couple of shaky outings, Tulane can win this one going away. And even if it's close, streaks are made to be broken and the Wave has a winning feel about it right now. Get by today, and Tulane would be in terrific shape to reach the championship game with its hottest starter, Alex Massey, going against an opponent playing its fourth game on Saturday.

By the way, David Pierce can reach uncharted territory as a head coach today if Tulane wins. In his three years as coach at Sam Houston State, he never went 2-0 in the Southland tournament. His team lost its first game in 2012, then won two straight before being eliminated. In 2013 and 2014 he won the opener, then lost two straight. He told me recently he thought his players relaxed a bit in the Southland tournaments because they felt secure about getting an at-large bid. That's not the case with Tulane, where he told the players they had secured nothing after yesterday's win. Whether it's true or not is debatable, but they appeared to believe his message.

AAC releases conference hoops pairings

The league's 11 teams will play 18 games for the second straight year, playing eight opponents twice and the other two once.

Tulane faces Temple (home) and Cincinnati (road) only once. That's a good break because those two teams will be picked in the top four for sure. Last year Tulane had no road game against league champion SMU (good) and no home game against bottom of the barrel East Carolina (bad).

The actual schedule will be announced much later. Tulane almost always is the last team to release it, usually in August.

http://theamerican.org/news/2015/5/20/MBB_0520155519.aspx

Quoteboard: Tulane 3, UConn 1

As others have posted, it was a terrific team win today with clutch pitching, Kaplan's home runs and sterling defense. UConn's record doesn't show it, but the Huskies are a heck of a hitting team.that is hard to hold to one run.

I talked to Kaplan, Duester, Gibaut and Pierce.

KAPLAN

On emerging from recent slump in a huge way:

"It felt good. I got two pitches I could drive and I got good swings on it. I had a tough series against Memphis, but I just came in here today, relaxed and felt like I was starting over. I had to help out the team."

on the first home run:

"It was a changeup in, and I got into that one pretty well."

On the second home run:

"It was a changeup or a fastball in. I’m not sure. I got my hands to it. I didn’t hit it quite on the barrel, but I got it well enough to hit it out of here."

On not having to face AAC Pitcher of the Year Carson Cross:

"They could throw anybody and we would have had good at-bats and done just as well. Duester went out there today and really shut it down for us, and Gibaut came in and did what he’s supposed to do. When he comes in I’m thinking there’s going to be a win, and we need him to keep throwing like he’s throwing."

On Duester's performance:

"Duester’s the man. He came out there today and shut it down. That’s all we can ask."

On significance of win:

"We’ve just got to keep winning, and nothing’s locked in for us. We did good in Memphis and won two out of three like we were supposed to, and hopefully we can come out here and just win the tournament and have no questions."

DUESTER

On having his longest stint of the year (seven innings; previous long was six):

"This team’s been doing this all year long. We have that postseason attitude in the dugout. We’re coming in this thing to win it. I had some trouble early I had to get out of. It kind of reminded me of a few outings from earlier in the year. I decided to bear down and get after it and make pitches when I needed it."

On getting out of bases loaded, one-out situations in second and third innings:

"I was just making pitches when I needed, and I have trust in our defense behind me. Our offense stuck with the same good approach the whole game. They just kept battling through it. They had a couple of good arms come at us, and we were able to put a couple of insurance runs on the board."

On when he found out he was starting:

"Probably three or four days ago he said you could be going Wednesday because I was the freshest arm coming back from Memphis. I just prepared like I do every other game. I was ready to go. I was excited being back down in Florida. I haven’t pitched here since I was in junior college almost a year ago in the state tournament. I didn’t do very well. It gave me a little chip on my shoulder. I’ve got family in here, too."

On what members of his family showed up:

(sister, a couple of friends, cousin from N.Y. and a couple of his friends, grandparents, uncle and a couple of friends from back home)

On significance of win:

"We’re coming into this tournament to win it. Coach gave us a motivational speed right now. He said you guys are not guaranteed. We need to go out there and play how we’ve been for the last couple of weeks of the season and just get after and play as hard as we can."

GIBAUT

On being at his best right now:

"I feel great out there right now. I feel really comfortable. I feel everything is smooth. I just made some minor adjustments in the middle of the season, and it’s been fun. It’s been good."

On his adrenaline on his last pitch:

"I was going for the strikeout right there. I knew I could get him off my fast ball with that slider. It was working today."

On significance of win:

"It’s huge. With the regional chances, it’s a big win. They were a bubble team and a really good club, but we came out here to win the tournament. Win three more, and we’re automatically in."

On Kaplan's day:

"He showed up today. He was really squaring the ball up today. That was a good boost for us."

PIERCE

On starting Duester:

"We’ve got four very good starters, and he was the freshest. It made the most sense. Corey came off a Friday to Thursday and I didn’t want to bump him Thursday to Wednesday. It wasn’t always pretty today, but boy he competed well and gave us a chance to win."

On Duester getting out of back-to-back jams:

"I’m sure they (the Huskies) are kicking themselves for leaving the guys on base, but we made pitches and made plays. It was just a really clean game."

On who will be the starting pitcher Thursday:

"Merrill is going to go tomorrow."

On Kaplan emerging from recent slump:

"We’ve settled into a lineup. He wasn’t the best hitter in the lineup over the weekend, but he had good at-bats. He probably had good at-bats at Memphis as anybody but just nothing to show for it. We had confidence in keeping him in there, and look what he did today."

On not having to face Cross:

"Any time you don’t have to face a pitcher of the year in the league, I don’t know if it’s happiness or any other thoughts. It’s just that’s what they chose to do and what we chose to do, and we outdueled them."

On Gibaut being at top of his game:

"He’s got his feet back under him. He’s really staying on his back leg and driving the ball, and it shows in his command. If he commands it, the key for him was to hit with the slider in the middle of their order because they can hit the fast ball at any speed. He did a great job of hitting the slider when he needed to."

On why Duester kept getting into trouble early:

"He’s a sinker guy, and he was leaving that up a little bit and he still walked four guys. He competed well, but giving them that extra base runner made for more stress pitches. He’s got to improve that."

On significance of win:


"It feels great to be in the winners bracket right now. We’re here to do our best and try to win the tournament, so that’s what we’re going to focus on for tomorrow night."

On rotation for rest of tournament:

"We're looking at Merrill, Massey and then go from there."

Tulane cancels final game of Miss St. series in 2016

This was a Tulane decision, and I don't like it.

In addition to the $350,000 the Wave will have to pay Mississippi State, it deprives fans of a chance to see how Curtis Johnson's team stacks up with an SEC team in what will be his fifth year. Sure, Tulane plays at Wake Forest in 2016, but the Demon Deacons usually are not as good as a lot of now-power five schools. Mississippi State has become a solid program under Dan Mullen and would have been a good measuring stick for Tulane.

Look for Tulane to replace Mississippi State with an FBS opponent that will agree to a home-and-home series, but definitely not a team from a power five conference. I'm thinking South Alabama or Rice or some team like that.

That's weak.

Of course, the more important task is building a legitimate winner. After last year's letdown in the AAC, Tulane needs to prove it can contend at the top of its new league, starting next fall. If the Wave succeeds, the decision to drop Mississippi State will look even worse, as if the Tulane administration does not think it can compete with average SEC teams. If the Wave struggles again this fall, it will simply wipe another L off the schedule from 2016.

One game? No games? Two games?

How many game do you think Tulane needs to win at the AAC tourney to get an at-large bid to a regional?

The way I look at it, the metrics are good across the board, but since the NCAA says it weighs tournament games as if they were regular season games, two straight losses could drop Tulane to the fifth or sixth best record in the AAC. My best guess is one win in Clearwater would do the trick.

Tulane has a tough assignment in its opener against a UConn ace who was part of a shutout victory in New Orleans. Getting the third seed was critical, but the matchup is rough. Merrill will need to be very sharp on Wednesday.

Your thoughts?

AAC baseball tourney predictions

I don't claim to be an expert on the league--I never saw East Carolina, Memphis or Cincinnati play--but I did follow the results closely. Here's a stab at what will happen in the AAC tourney.

1) Houston

The Cougars, who won the Baton Rouge regional last year, were supposed to win the AAC title this season and proved as good as advertised after a slow start and despite a slew of injuries, winning their last six series to finish 16-8. They have the best starting pitching in the league, the best power and the best team. They also have plenty of incentive in Clearwater. Even though they are the only team assured of an at-large bid if they go 0-2, they are playing to host a regional and would almost certainly do so if they won the tourney.

Prediction: 3-0, bracket winner, tourney champion

2) East Carolina

New coach Cliff Godwin won the AAC coach of the year honor that should have gone to David Pierce, but it's understandable since the Pirates went 15-9 to Tulane's 13-11 and beat the Wave comfortably in the season series. Still, they won only one non-conference game of note (NC State) and are an underwhelming bunch statistically aside from being an excellent defense team (second to Tulane in fielding percentage, and opponents stole only nine bases in 16 attempts). They are just OK at the plate and OK on the mound. So why did they finish one game behind Houston for first place? They won their last eight one-run games (including two out of conference), an incredible stat that is partly the function of good fortune.

Prediction: 1-2

3) Tulane

The Wave is underwhelming statistically, too, but only because it was so anemic at the plate, finishing last in the league in runs scored during conference games. Tulane was not dominant on the mound in conference play, either, posting the fourth-best ERA. But it was really good defensively, posting the best fielding percentage, making sensational plays in the infield, having a catcher (Jake Rogers) with an incredibly accurate arm (though he slumped late) and a right fielder (Lex Kaplan) with a bazooka for an arm. If Tulane swings the bat like it did in the last 12 innings against Memphis (14 runs), it can win the tournament. If it reverts to form, it won't last long.

Prediction: 2-2

4) South Florida

I doubted Mark Kingston's club all year, and after leading the conference standings for a while, the Bulls lost four consecutive series. They came up empty against top notch opponents out of the league, getting beaten by FSU, Florida and Illinois by the combined score of 72-18 (though beating Illinois once, which likely will get them an at-large bid). They hit pretty well and run pretty well but have little power. They pitch pretty well but are not overwhelming on the mound. They field pretty well but can be run on. And they will play their first two tournament games without coach Mark Kingston, who will be serving the rest of his five-game suspension for confronting an umpire after a loss at Tulane two weeks ago. They do get to play close to home, where they went 8-4 in conference play.

Prediction: 2-2

5) Memphis

The Tigers spit the bit on Saturday against Tulane after putting themselves in position for an at-large bid despite a poor RPI number that came because they lost two series to woeful Cincinnati. This was the most unpredictable team in the league, winning series against champion Houston and second-place East Carolina but somehow losing at home and on the road, as just mentioned. to Cincinnati. They never won a series opener until beating Tulane and were 11-3 on the rest of the weekend until getting swept in the doubleheader by the Wave. They were second-to-last in runs scored, in the middle of the pack in pitching and had the worst fielding percentage in the AAC. The series losses to Cincy and a 16-inning win against pitiful Tennessee-Martin last week don't bode well.

Prediction: 1-2

6) Connecticut

If you look at the stats, it's hard to figure out how the Huskies finished sixth with an 11-13 record. They outscored their opponents in AAC play by 39, second only to Houston, while posting the second best ERA and scoring the most runs. Their 1-2 punch of Carson Cross, the AAC Pitcher of the Year, and Anthony Kay is awesome. Defense is an issue. They finished seventh in fielding percentage and turned a measly 11 double plays in 24 conference plays, five fewer than any other team. They also went 1-7 in their last eight conference games decided by two or fewer runs, including a sweep at Houston last weekend when the Cougars won by a total of four runs. If the Huskies hit reasonably well in Clearwater, this is a dangerous team.

Prediction: 3-0, bracket winner, lose to Houston in championship game

7) Central Florida

The Knights can't pitch at a high level, so they had no chance of sustaining their early-season stint inside the top 10 of national polls. They also stopped hitting, even at their hitter-friendly park, despite having a roster is loaded with talented batters. They are better than their performance in the league and if their one big-time pitcher, Zach Rogers (10-0, 2.18 ERA) handles ECU in the opener, they are capable of a run that will bolster a resume featuring series wins over Ole Miss and Houston and a win against Florida. But I don't like the mindset of this team, particularly compared to ECU in that first game. On paper, Rogers should win that one.

Prediction: 0-2

8) Cincinnati

AAC Player of the Year Ian Happ is a heck of a hitter. Everything else about this team is god-awful.

Prediction: 0-2

Tim Yandel

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a pitcher go from “great” to “terrible” so quickly. In his first four appearances this year (all weekend starts), Tim Yandel pitched 26 1/3 innings, allowed 11 hits, and 2 earned runs. He walked 8 (2.73/9 innings) and struck out 15 (5.1/9 innings). Opponents were batting .122 against him and his ERA was 0.68. Due to lack of run support, he was only 2-0.

Since then, in 12 appearances (4 starts), he’s pitched 26 more innings. He’s allowed 41 hits (a .376 batting average), walked 18 guys (6.2/9 innings), and struck out 11 (3.8/9 innings). He’s also allowed 23 earned runs (7.96 ERA) while going 0-1.

Last year he didn’t pitch much—13 appearances and 18 innings. But, he pitched very well: 1 earned run (0.50 ERA), with only 10 hits (.185 batting average), 7 walks (3.5/9 innings) and 11 K’s (5.5/9 innings).

I have no idea (other than a “between the ears” issue) what is the problem.

It’s probably too late for him to recover this year. I don’t see how Coach Pierce can “trust” him in our remaining games, but he’s got one more year and we’ll need him next season to get his “stuff” together.

I hope he can.

Roll Wave!!!!

One note on hoops signing class

It's by far the best Conroy has signed and the first one with the potential for real success down the road. That part is all good.

But as great as it is compared to the past, it still ranks ninth among 11 AAC teams according to another national site (Rivals only lists the top 30 classes). ECU and Tulsa, the other two CUSA departures, are the only ones ranked lower. Tulane is 68th, Houston 67th, UCF 59th, USF 55th, Cincinnati 52nd, Temple 49th, SMU 39th, UConn 30th and Memphis 14th.

And the Wave "squeezes back"

After Thursday's game I said the Wave's chances for a regional were being squeezed. Well, that was Thursday. You've got to be proud of these guys today. Backs to the wall and they played as well as they've played at any point this season, or for that matter, any season in several years. Obviously a lot of variables left but finishing tied for 3rd in the league with the tiebreaker making us the 3rd for tournament purposes is a good start. Two wins in the tourney and I think we're in. One win and we may be in. Going 0-2 would probably be a "no go."

Roll Wave!!!

Chances for Regional being squeezed

The loss last night along with the loss to USM combined with below average performance by our other opponents (.429 winning percentage in the last four games) has put our backs against the wall. By my count, IF we win the next two AND win two in the tourney, we'll have an RPI in the high 40's and have a shot. Even that would depend on how our other opponents do, others in our conference do, and how many "undeserving" teams (ie. not "top 64" in RPI) win their tournaments, forcing an expected champion, with clear "at large" credentials to take a spot we might receive.

It's not done, but we're getting closer to needing to win the conference tournament.

Roll Wave!!!!

You think Tulane baseball is in tough spot?

The loss tonight to Memphis was rough, but at least David Pierce is still in the dugout. USF coach Mark Kingston got suspended for five games for a run-in with an umpire after the Tulane game Sunday.

Here's the link from the Tampa Bay Times. Word is there may have been a police report filed.

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/bulls/usf-coach-mark-kingston-suspended-5-games/2229735

Memphis starter tonight

The stat I already posted about Memphis is truly incredible, that the Tigers are 0-7 in AAC series openers while being outscored 52-14. This being baseball, it may not have an effect on tonight's pivotal game against Tulane, but here's the history.

Caleb Wallingford pitched the first five openers and struggled in all of them, giving up 23 runs 31 innings.

Colton Hathcock pitched the following week against Cincinnati and the Tigers lost 11-4.

Alex Gunn, the Tigers' normal midweek starter, pitched last Friday against UCF and allowed seven runs in 3.1 innings, taking his first loss of the season after five victories. He gets the start tonight. He was not pitching feel even before his promotion, however, giving up eight hits and three runs in 5.1 innings against Arkansas State and five runs in five innings against Ole Miss. He is a senior lefty.

Tulane cannot afford to lose this game. Memphis has been very good in the second and third games of series all year, so it probably would be too much to ask for the Wave to win Friday and Saturday with a loss tonight. Everything points in Tulane's favor with Corey Merrill on the mound, so the Wave has to take care of business.

Opponents' RPI and Tulane Strength of Schedule

A lot of people seem to equate opponent’s RPI with our strength of schedule. It’s not even close. As most on this site know, the opponents RPI is made up 25% by its winning percentage and 50% by its opponents winning percentage. While important to their RPI, the final 25% (Opponents’ opponents' win percentage) doesn’t even contribute to our strength of schedule. Our Strength of schedule, which makes up 75% of our RPI is based 66.7% on opponents winning percentage. The other third of our strength of schedule is based on the winning percentage of our opponents’ foes. So, for example the RPI of South Florida is significantly better than that of Memphis. But, winning against Memphis will help our RPI more than winning against South Florida, and that doesn’t even include winning on the road. The same goes for Southern Miss. They add more to our strength of schedule that does South Florida.

Through Sunday’s games, the Math:

South Florida is #28 in RPI and has a .5865 win/loss rate. Its opponents have a .5852 W/L rate. The SOS they bring to Tulane’s RPI calculation is .5861. (twice USF W/L rate plus their opponents' W/L rate all divided by three).

Memphis is #61 in RPI but has a .6600 W/L rate. Its opponents have a .5129 W/L rate to give them a .6111 SOS component within Tulane’s RPI calculation.

Similarly, USM is #62 in RPI with a W/L rate of .6562. Its opponents W/L rate is .5120 for a .6081 SOS component as an opponent of Tulane.

The simple fact is that an opponent's W/L rate is MUCH more important than its RPI in judging whether they will help or hurt our own RPI.

So, in reality, the way to greatly improve your RPI isn't necessarily to schedule high RPI teams, but to schedule teams with superior W/L records. In truth, they tend to coincide.

Roll Wave!!!

The money quotes: Tulane loses 8-4 to USM

Southern Miss needed Tuesday night's game more than Tulane and played like it, getting outstanding hitting, defense and pitching out of the bullpen to beat the Green Wave 8-4 for the second time this season. The Golden Eagles won their 10th straight overall and 10th straight midweek game, but the games that really matter for the Wave start Thursday at Memphis.

Here is a sampling of what coach David Pierce and his players had to say:

PIERCE

On Tim Yandel's shaky performance, when he allowed six runs in 3.1 innings, meaning he has given up 27 runs his last 26.1 innings after a terrific start to the season.

"He's fighting some confidence right now. As soon as something bad happens, he's searching instead of competing. He'll be back. He's going to have to regain some form if he's going to help us in the tournament. We have confidence in him, and we're going to need him."

On Eric Steel having to come out in the middle of the second batter he faced:

"He's been a little banged up. He was only going to go the rest of that inning, so he was only in a short two-out inning relief. It was concerning, but he said, 'coach, I can go,' so we took a shot at it and he couldn't."

On getting past loss:

"This will be a clean sweep. We'll get past this. We're ready for a bus ride. We're excited about going to Memphis."

On talking to team about stakes of series:

"Right now I don't have to because they know the stakes. In the past I've been kind of building them up for this, but right now they understand the whole picture. It's going to be an exciting weekend hopefully."

On significance of USM game:

"This was how I looked at it. If we did well here and then poorly in the weekend, this game wouldn't have mattered. If we lose this one and do well this weekend, I think we're in good shape."

On Memphis struggling in first game of conference series (0-7 this year):

"We can't view it like that because they are a quality team. We had some struggles early and then we won three in a row (opening games of series). It's just about two guys toeing it up and making the routine plays and getting some clutch hits."

On whether a series win would put Tulane in good shape for a regional:

"There are so many things throughout the country that create the variables. I think we have to win the series to have a shot."

On Sam Bjorngjeld going 4.2 innings and not allowing a run in third appearance of year:

"This was not just a token outing for Sam. Like we've been talking about all year, we're searching for guys that can help us in the conference series or in the tournament. He was remarkable tonight."

LEX KAPLAN

On Memphis series:

"I'm really excited. It's going to be like a playoff situation. We need to win the series. That's the bottom line. We're going to go out there. I think we're going to do it. We looked good offensively tonight (10 hits) and our starting pitching has been good. We're just going to go out there and be relaxed, not too tense and we'll be all right."

On stakes:

"The way I'm looking at it, if we win the series and do decent in the (AAC) tournament, we'll be in there, hopefully playing LSU at the Box. I'd like that."

HUNTER WILLIAMS

On what need to do at Memphis:

"We need to win as many games as we can and definitely win the series.We'll do whatever we can to put ourselves in a good position and let the cards fall in place."

COREY MERRILL

On talking about regional chances:

"We're definitely talking about it a lot. Last year we struggled a little bit and didn't even get the opportunity to play for a regional late in the season. Now that we have a chance, we know Memphis is a big series coming up. If we win that series and hopefully get a sweep, we know we'll have a really good shot at getting an at-large. This (loss) happened. So what. Let's move on to Memphis. We have a little chip on our shoulder and the motivation to get through it."

On Thursday being biggest game he's faced:

"It definitely has the most meaning now that it's coming down to the end, but this game means the same as it did five weeks ago. It's all the same thing. It's all conference. Now that it's so close, it's kind of built up a little bit more, and the main thing to do is just keep your composure and (treat it as) just another game and do everything you can to prepare for it."

On team rebounding from 12-0 loss to USF last Friday to win next two:

"I expected to bounce back like that. This team has a lot of heart and a lot of fight in them. The big thing was we had a rough one, and when something like that happens at home and you get embarrassed like that, it's going to take something off of your head. We came out and fought very well."

Another huge win

Monster win today against USF. Misplayed ball by USF centerfielder was an obvious big break and the Wave still only went 6 for 30 at bat. But, pitching was tough and I've got to give props to Winwave who pointed to Rankin as pitching well in his last appearance. His two innings were really important to this victory. Four games to go before the AAC tourney. Win three of them and I think we're in even if we go 0-2 in the conference tournament. Let's go 4-0 and take away any doubt. Tough four games in five days will be a challenge.

Roll Wave!!!
ADVERTISEMENT

Filter

ADVERTISEMENT